12/10 Thread (General):
Enthusiast
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Thoughts on sales strategy group at salesforce?
Bowl Leader
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Enthusiast
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10/12 Thread (General):
Bowl Leader
Mentor
YA LOVE TO SEE IT 🐻
So time to get on APPS bandwagon again?
Are you all selling your puts at open?
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Subject Expert
I don’t want to be alarmist here, but it’s time for a little bit of caution for several reasons.
1) Volatility isn’t leaving the market as fast as it has the last several months after a VOLA spike. VIX, RVX, and VXN all retraced their movements from Wed. The VIX futures curve is back in contango, but things aren’t settled out.
2) There’s low levels of hedging in the market with Implied Volatility premiums at much lower readings than last week.
3) OPEX is next week…
4) CPI either peaked in OCT of NOV. Commodities and internet rates are signaling this pretty strongly.
5) GDP growth will likely show signs of slowing by Feb and we’ll likely see reduced Federal spending in 2022 as well. Taken with point number 4 we’re a couple months away from a very different macro economic backdrop than what we’ve had the last 18ish months.
6) Who knows what the Fed will do… not trading based on that call but it will certainly create waves for the market
Many of the COVID plays and ARKK names have been gutted. We’re seeing software with a big negative divergence from tech (IGV vs XLK and SMH). Breadth in the S&P and Russell has been deteriorating for months.
If something’s not working for you, get rid of it and find a new idea. I had a number of dogs that I just put down. Had to be done.
I’ve been aggressively taking profits this week and have more cash on hand than I did in March 2020. That’s not a bear call, it’s just how I’ve been trading here. I’m more focused on keeping what I have given the chop of the last few weeks. I have a game plan ready for buys, just waiting for the right entry.
NOTE: I’m assuming if you’re in an options bowl you’re an active trader, so it’s just silly to comment with a buy and hold for ever response…
Subject Expert
My point on the note is there’s often someone who strolls into this bowl and spouts off about just buying VTI or VOO. That’s like preaching abstinence and temperance in a Reno whorehouse.
Right now I’m basically trading everything apart from some high dividend positions and stock from my old company that’s 20x over my cost basis. I’m trying to manage the systematic risk we have from hot inflation and insane monetary policies. I have orders of magnitude more wealth at stake than I had in 2008 and fewer years to make up any losses.
I’m not willing to sit on an index fund that’s really just 6 stocks and live through what could be a lost decade in the market.
So we nuking on cpi? 🥴
Enthusiast
You are right. I forgot my timeline lol.
Mentor
I am super confused on what direction the market is trying to go. I agree with your general sentiment to go cash at larger percentages of your portfolio or hedge.
I’m playing the last 2 weeks of the year for the “year end rally” - after OPEX and Fed meeting
Subject Expert
Not at all surprised to see a decline off the early session pop up. Probably not a day to chase.
LCID - good time to initiate position and deploy 20% allocation
Enthusiast
TSLA - may be losing the wedge. If it does break down, 900 wouldn't be a bad place to start scaling in.
Subject Expert
I feel you. I was up big in OCT and gave it all back and then some on NOV. third time that’s happened to me this year. I’m getting good at finding entries… focusing on exits now.
Hopefully didn’t learn that lesson too well here…
Enthusiast
Don't get caught in the crowded trades. Once these run out of steam it could be brutal.
Enthusiast
I have not, but I'll give her a follow and check it out
Sta The other day you were talking about UPST. Is it a buy here?
Enthusiast
157 has been holding, but markets are looking week.
Gap fill would be ~141.
I already have a LT share position that I took my original cost basis out. I added a few more shares yesterday but otherwise just sitting tight. Obviously today is a better buy at a 10% discount, but I wouldn't try to swing trade any high growth tech at this point in time.
Subject Expert
Friday was a decent day for the indexes and all 11 sectors were up. Crypto still teetering and IWM was down.
Looks like light exchange volume so may not have been the sustainable we’d like. Still another ATH on SPY is a nice way to end the week.
Didn’t no much myself today. Just watching and sitting on chunks of cash…