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How’s everyone feeling about this coming week?
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Don't be fooled by a ramp up or down to close. We are still not out of this wedge down. Doubt we get out today. Lock in gains on any winners. Keep an eye open for re-entry. Weekly candlelooks pretty good so far. I expect more volatility next week no matter how we close today. Next week is big for monthly candle.
Subject Expert
Closed my PEP call trade for a 50% gain after two days. Might pop back into that trade on Monday if the setup still works.
Fixed income is getting nervous. The Treasury yield curve from 2yr to 10yr moved down 10-20 basis points today and the LQD and HYG had pretty bad weeks. Haven’t rolled off my OCT 16 unit puts but did get the NOV ones on.
Proceed with extreme caution.
Good spot for put lottos if you are into that sort of stuff.
Subject Expert
Note to self. I hate lottos because the algos always screw me...
Enthusiast
Market sentiment is still fairly bullish, even despite the drops we have seen. Equity P/C ratio is still low, in the 0.5-0.7 range despite big down days. This to me says that we can continue to see more downside as long as retail investors remain optimistic and buy the dip.
However, we are at an important area here. We closed at 323.42 on the SPY, right above the June high of 323.41. The 100 day SMA, which I don't typically use but I added to my charts, is right at 320. Yesterday we bounced off of it at 319.68 to the penny. We would need to break and close below to continue to see downward price action. Then the 200 SMA would be the next obstacle.
Good luck, happy Friday, and let's make some $$
Enthusiast
Thats ok - I grabbed a 328 Spy call for Monday expiration - got stopped out on a dip but it ended up closing the day 100% higher. You can't always win 🤷♂️
Actually not a fan of the action today. The trend for next week will be decided at close. It's bullish right now because of all of the defends but still hasn't broken the wedge downtrend. Who knows what they do over the weekend too. Generally it's been up though. Overall even if this is the bottom expect big chop between this level and spy high for rest of the year.
Looking to be in grgw, dao, rkt for next week. Looking to short wkhs here.
It's down 40% from high and hitting it's ipo low. Good swing trade around here. Gotta be ok with volatility though.
Enthusiast
Also have a head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily charts. Neckline is around 0. If this breaks, we could see negative cases in just a few months. Lol.
Enthusiast
Yup, gotta find something to keep myself entertained when the markets are slow lol jk
Enthusiast
Wishing I had taken that Tesla trade off the 50 period SMA... would've been over 10% gain so far. Oh well.
Its consolidating into a triangle pattern, so a break in either direction could be a significant move.
Enthusiast
I agree - at some point this ridiculousness has to end. It doesn't make sense. But, just looking at the chart, either scenario is still possible.
Do we anticipate an afternoon sell off?
If not, do we think there will be one next week for quarter end?
Enthusiast
AMD - decent size gap below to upper 60's. It has stayed above support of 73.85 since the gap up in late July. If it breaks down, can move quickly.
Also could be setting up bear flag pattern.
Enthusiast
I can see a H&S - its slightly upsloping? Starting with the move up on 7/30
About that late afternoon upswing...short call sellers covering as market started to move up?