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On bloomy: UXX6 index , ESZ6 index, GCZ6 Comdty, USDJPYCurrncy. Those are the ones I'd watch. Vix front, e-mini S&P, gold, and dollar yen cross. And for some fun the USDMXN cross as well.
Im pretty positive just like Brexit the entire street will be up.
Yeah ES straddle is lik 70$ for next week
Key one for the energy industry as well. Will be watching for sure.
Load up on TVIX and profit
Vol is pretty expensive, and the vol curve is inverted. I wouldn't short vol outright but if Clinton wins (base case) vol should slam down in a furry overnight so vol spreads should profit. Don't know if buying vol is the play but you do you.
I'm still curious as to why vol is so high. Clinton is almost guaranteed a victory on Tuesday if you look at median poll results/Bayesian analysis. I would be blown away if Trump even sniffs 240 electoral votes.
Polling in this election is going to IMO be whacky, mostly because people are voting against the other guy and not for their guy(gal). So turnout and demographic turnout is super hard to predict. Do you think the African American Turnout is going to be the same as 2012? Doubtful. That's a drag towards Clinton. That's one of many many scenarios. Also, the Utah polls show McMullan within the MOE. There is a super small possibility that he gets Utah and no candidate gets 270. Then the house decides the president.
Anyone who wants to learn impact on financial market during the period starting Tuesday morning till wed morning what should we be looking at to see the impact realtime ? Any specific chart, etc ? Thanks
Thanks a lot man, really appreciate it, going to be a good experience night