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Coach
Honestly, I think you’re misattributing the market performance to irrationality. The reality is that uncertainty around the virus is rapidly diminishing, which markets are responding positively to. I think it’s unlikely that any second wave will have an enormous impact on the market unless it’s completely cataclysmic, which I also find unlikely. The next big uncertainty isn’t the virus, it’s recession, and I don’t think we’ll truly start seeing that reflected in market prices until the extent of the damage becomes more widely known, which will probably be at least a month or more from now. TL;DR: don’t place puts and then try to justify your market position as more rational than the market
For the record, I was out on puts after last week.
Going to go with markets ignoring reality
Mentor
I think it will hurt. States were already reporting some spikes. 3 people in my group in my office got it within the past week, all the while working from home.
I do expect a short term drop when we get our first big set of spikes in a few weeks. I don’t think they’ll be anything crazy and causing hospital issues but will have some people worried and of course media will play it up. For the next year plus there’s gonna be a lot of ups and downs and consumer confidence will take time.