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I booked with delta with UR and they ended up cancelling the flight all together. They refund the UR credit card and it takes a few months for the points to eventually credit your UR account.
You can’t get points back. When you book through the Chase portal, Chase pays cash money to the airline. Typically, this means the value is tied to the confirmation code/cancelled ticket for later. 
They 100% will credit your points back. Had this happen during hurricane Florence. Chases MasterCard receives the airline credit and once that hits, chase refunds your points used for that transaction. If the airline chooses to not refund and keep the credit within their system to use for future travel, that’s a different story.
That’s why it’s best to wait it out to see if the airline proactively cancels the flight before you choose to cancel your ticket. When you take the action, you don’t get a cash refund
FYI canceled directly through Chase and they said to expect a full points refund, but we will see