Bought Tesla in hype in 800s. My friend is saying that it’s going back to 300-400 before it starts recovering. Shall I cut my losses or hold for next few years to breakeven?

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Tesla's market cap is greater than the combined market cap of Toyota, VW, Daimler, able GM. How many Tesla's do you think you'll ever see on the road as compared to those other four companies (which own multiple brands of cars each)? There's a reason is shorted....

- price is future based, not today/history
- price also looks at margins, cash flow leverage, profits etc all of which Tesla looks extremely promising
- Tesla already has industry leading margins and isn’t even close to the scale of competition and has a strong pipeline
- Tesla owns entire supply chain for better cost control. Batteries is biggest constraint so buying as much as they can whilst competition remains uncommitted to LT orders
- EVs will take over car market and Tesla will be dominant due to superior features and consumers comparison shop with such a large purchase
- huge optionality with FSD, energy, solar, etc. if successful

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Model s was seen with updated FSD hardware meaning hw3 won’t go level 5 or robotaxi. All the fanboys will be so mad when that’s confirmed.

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M1 - I don’t get your point.

Better tech that is cheaper will constantly come out so why wouldn’t they update in new production vehicles? Additionally hardware is doing more and more especially with model S with new screen.

And finally Tesla has done upgrades before of people who wanted newer hardware.

Note: none of this is saying new hardware is required for level 5. 5 years ago everyone thought Lidar and radar were required. Now Tesla is supposedly about to release a vision only FSD SW. and cameras can see a lot better than human eyes and have 360 view and don’t rest.

But who knows. All I know is people a lot smarter than you and I have debated this and working all angles

And what makes you think Tesla doesn’t think so either?

DCA

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Tesla will need to crack FSD to rebound, or reignite its cult. Too many competitors being launched. Google the ET5 from Skywell. I know it’s made in China, but that’s a nice looking ev suv for 30k - 40k. Their market share will decrease. Maybe they make up for it on the energy side, but all this stuff is really expensive for the average person.

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I agree. Competition accelerates EV adoption. Even cheap cars people will actively comparison shop as it’s a considered decision. Yes brand loyalty play a role but so does deputation. 3/4 of the time some thinks of a Ford, Toyota or VW EV, they will compare it to the equivalent Tesla too before deciding.

Yes market share today will drop but volume will sky rocket as the competition is combustion engine sales, not EVs.

Why did you invest originally?

Had tour investment thesis changed?

I prefer to think of it as not what I have gained/lost to date but what is my current position and should it stay the same with today’s price.

If you do sell, you run the risk that this is the bottom. If you hold you run the risk that this isn’t the bottom. No one can predict tomorrow or next few months. It is easier (but still hard) to predict long term so focus on that.

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SF - if you still believe in that thesis then why does today’s SP matter? Sure it’s ‘nice’ to always be up but if you’re using Cathy’s thesis you shouldn’t be using money that you need for next 5 years. Markets do lots of weird things in short term ie rotation from tech to reopening plays - this has zero to do with company value but money moving.

💎🖐

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The talks about shorting Tesla will only continue forever, especially now since Michael Burry shorted Tesla. People hate Elon Musk, but I don’t see Tesla going lower than $500 and it’ll definitely reach $800 again within the next year.

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Btw... I hate this chart because it isn’t standardized for market cap or EV. Of course big companies like FAAMG have the largest short interest.

Is TSLA’s short interest (4% of market cap = 22B / 555B) better than AON’s (11% of market cap = 6.5B / 57B)?

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Like someone said dca buy and never sell that’s the motto

There is lot of lost opportunity cost. Same $ would generate income in index funds

It’s up from $450 (pre-split) to $4500 (split adjusted) in a year. While some made 1000%+ return, you are one those who made it possible. So choose your poison: wait for another wave of rookies, or cut your loss. One way or another, you are paying for your naive-ness.

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