Related Posts
I need a career coach suggestions?
What’s your take on ESG ratings?
Additional Posts in Consulting
How do you figure out who your spirit animal is?
Best protein powder?
Unpopular opinion: I think virtual trivia is boring
Can you pay for Invisalign with your HSA?
Recruiters are Darwin’s missing link
New to Fishbowl?
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I just hope whoever wins, takes the popular vote
Heil Hillary
Models shouldn't swing wildly after only a few days of additional data. But, then again, Donald Trump shouldn't have been the republican nominee. We live in a strange new world where anything is possible.
He has three versions. Polls plus uses polls plus fundamentals to forecast Election Day outcomes - it is most stable and hasn't fluctuated a lot. Polls only ignores fundamentals and the fundamentals will phase out of the Polls Plus model by Election Day to become the same as Polls only - this model is moderately stable. Then there's Now Cast which assumes Election Day is today so is very sensitive to the polls.
Also, the model is counts individual polls. So if there are lots of polls, it reacts even if they are published in a short period.