Clinton is crushing it in Nate Silver's model

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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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I just hope whoever wins, takes the popular vote

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Heil Hillary

Models shouldn't swing wildly after only a few days of additional data. But, then again, Donald Trump shouldn't have been the republican nominee. We live in a strange new world where anything is possible.

He has three versions. Polls plus uses polls plus fundamentals to forecast Election Day outcomes - it is most stable and hasn't fluctuated a lot. Polls only ignores fundamentals and the fundamentals will phase out of the Polls Plus model by Election Day to become the same as Polls only - this model is moderately stable. Then there's Now Cast which assumes Election Day is today so is very sensitive to the polls.

Also, the model is counts individual polls. So if there are lots of polls, it reacts even if they are published in a short period.

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