{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "Corona virus - the fears may be very overblown. The rate of new cases has been declining for several weeks. ( cont)", "post_id": "5e57f44cf050d2002a6c0f25", "reply_count": 60, "vote_count": 12, "bowl_id": "552d1d24dc1c586b09d2d051", "bowl_name": "Consulting" }

Corona virus - the fears may be very overblown. The rate of new cases has been declining for several weeks. ( cont)

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What people aren't understanding is that we only know what we know. For every "confirmed" case there are probably 10 or 100 cases that haven't been tested and confirmed. This virus is extremely contagious and they're not testing a large number of people (especially in the West). What should make everyone feel better is that if the number of actual infected is 100x the number of confirmed cases, this virus isn't that much more deadly than influenza. 80% of confirmed cases have mild symptoms. Many confirmed cases in China (especially among healthcare workers) involve asymptomatic people. The media is doing more damage to the world than the virus will actually do. If you're not elderly or immune compromised or have preexisting respiratory issues, you'll probably be fine.

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Add the fact that some countries aren’t even implementing the proper checks, and that some of these countries are even Europeans. I.e. Italy, who has one of the best quality healthcare in the world, has 200+ cases and France/Germany appear to have extremely lower numbers as apparently they are not doing that many checks. This added variable has the potential to be extremely high.

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If you were to plot cases outside of China you would however see a continuous increase

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Accurate data or not. I am fully resting my faith in Mike Pence. He fixed HIV in Indiana. He will definitely fix coronavirus.

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I’m sure he is putting together the most god fearing, science denying commission to pray this away. And as long as you are not alone in a room with the virus without a chaperone, you can’t get infected, right?!

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YOUR NON-SCIENTIFIC reasoning is WRONG and EXTREMELY misleading. Temporary declines of new cases do not signify the epidemic is ending. There are multiple factors at play here including difficulties with diagnosis, containment and prevention efforts. There is a long incubation period, and cases during the initial spread tend to be low until it firmly takes hold in a community and there is sustained community transition, or a superspreader event.

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OP: China, for all its faults, has experience and infrastructure in handling and detecting influenza spread. Same can be said about South Korea. Not for Italy and Iran. Iran is especially concerning given that its confirmed cases/death ratio is way off. This means that the 1) actual cases are probably way higher and 2) infected people probably travelled outside of Iran and into the wider Middle East, especially to parts with even worse infrastructure and resources to detect and contain cases. The concern is that the Covid spread is increasing outside of China, and that the spread is likely higher than what has been tested and confirmed

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I'm not worried. This is like SARs and Ebola and that stuff..just overhyped illness.

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Til: People dying is overhyped o_o

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The things I'm worried about should Covid19 spread in the US: 1. Panic from a population that is largely inexperienced with non-seasonal influenza spreads 2. Healthcare costs spurring people away from seeking early treatment and containment 3. Workplace norms that discourage people from taking sick days (from everyone to your uber driver to your sandwich guy to your hotel housekeeper) 4. Lack of experience in state and local health departments in dealing with pandemic threats 5. Weak surveillance and detection infrastructure

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Counting cases is near impossible. The residual effect cannot be accurately tracked. Still, I think this is overhyped. It gives media a field day.

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Seeing how the Chinese government has changed their counting methodology at least 3 times, is anyone confident with the numbers they are reporting?

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I'd trust Krn # more

You what's not overblown? The hit to my stock portfolio this virus has caused. Not complaining though, taking the opportunity to buy more.

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I feel like that should be the tagline to Hunger Games

Did an intern make these graphs in excel 2007? Pls fix

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OP clown director

Right OP because black swan events never happen

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Sars, swine flu, bird flu, H1N1...we have see this before. Wash your hands, lord knows many can not afford healthcare and many will go unreported. Ebola is still the winner in my book for “panic.”

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There is one data spike that makes the data difficult to see. This is the bottom graph, it forces a higher scale and you can’t see what’s going on with the rest of the data. Changing this value to something inline with the rest (from 19,000 to 1900) creates the first graph. It’s pretty clear that the number of new cases is declining. My take away - fear not.

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*Reported global cases

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I think the issue now is the new pockets that are starting to emerge. It will spread. To me the economic cost will not be small. But also governments will fight like hell to keep this thing under wraps until there is some sort of treatment and or vaccine readily available.

Alcohol kills Covid19; a few more afterworks and we should all be fine.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this was intentionally spread with a poorly thought out plan on how it would spread, who would be infected and how well it would be contained. Who stood to gain the most from hurting China right now?....

Chairman Xi is that you ?

The peak in the graph is where the client sponsor chewed us out for looking like a failure in front of the EVP during the last status. We changed how we measured things.

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