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Consulting work life balance #BeWellWorkWell
I’m not liking these back to back deadlines 💔
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"Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation"
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/public-health-lessons-learned-from-biases-in-coronavirus-mortality-overestimation/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9
I am so making this my new WFH set up!
Anyone here work for Schindler Elevator Corp?
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You can debate anything you want - except one thing. Masks save lives.
Rising Star
Masks slow the spread. Unless masks completely eliminate the spread (which they don’t) or keep hospitals from being overwhelmed (maybe though I imagine social distancing is far more effective) they won’t save lives. They will change the death toll timeline.
I think it is helpful to remind people that the purpose of the lockdown and restrictions was to “flatten the curve” so as to prevent overwhelming hospitals beyond their capacity, not to eliminate COVID19.
Additionally, and this is rarely noted, but most (not all) hospitals have the ability to convert a subset of their acute care beds to ICU beds to provide roughly 20% more ICU capacity.
Chief
New York flattened the curve based on an objective, science-based checklist to reopen. Florida, Texas and Arizona never had that. People there (anecdotally) are not wearing masks. What happened?
I live in TX and the real issue is no one is wearing masks. And yes our hospitalizations are trending way up.
Chief
Who would have thought wearing masks would turn into a political issue? Ridiculous.
Also - if we don’t take some risk, we won’t have a world to go back to. So, not sure we have an option but seeing some increase in trend lines as long as it doesn’t explode again
I think saying we won't have a world to go back to is a little dramatic
Here’s what’s happening with hospitalization in Texas.
Enthusiast
Outside of south Florida, Florida doesn’t seem to care about COVID-19 or its spread. Life is “back to normal” on vacation and operations it seems. The last time I checked our available icu beds are going down and quickly. We’ll see what happens within the next 2 weeks. Both the mayor of Miami and governor of Florida has stated they will not operate in going backwards thus a mess is waiting to happen.
Chief
This simply is not true. Hillsborough and Pinellas counties have mandated masks. I'm in Pasco county and everyone wears a mask. All precautions are in place, restaurants social distancing, and many places still not opened.
Enthusiast
But here’s the thing, can you really compare anything right now? California is increasing too and that state had a relatively strict lockdown. Who’s to say states with stricter lock downs that have just begun opening up (like NY) won’t face rising cases and hospitalizations again in a month (like FL, AZ, TX)? We’re all comparing states, cities, etc. that are at different points in the timeline.
We all knew cases and hospitalizations would increase to a certain point upon reopening. We were never going to get rid of COVID as part of the lockdowns back in March / April / May. We used that time so health care systems could appropriately prepare, collect PPE, increase capacity, etc. for when we began to reopen the economy. T
I think we need to wait until later this summer / early fall for it really to be an apples to apples comparison. Based on data now, I guess you could go with they reopened too soon but who’s to say data in 2 months time won’t say something different? (Like our government and experts have been doing during this entire pandemic)
Chief
Good discussion, A1!
Chief
I think the issue is that FL/AZ/TX locked down late and opened up early. How long were some of those Florida counties closed? A month? Six weeks? We did our time in the NE, first in after CA and last out - and I bet we ride this out ok. A bunch of old people in those sunbelt states will now die, and since we were hoping to play MLB and the NBA there, probably messes that up too. Ironically it’s now NY who is implementing a travel ban on people from FL....oh how the times have changed.
No it’s the way people are acting out of quarantine. Congregating in masses and no masks.
Agree 100%. New cases is a useless stat bc it doesn’t take into account change in testing volume nor the severity of the case. 1. Daily death rate, 2. ICU beds used for COVID/ available ICU beds, 3. % of positive test results
Chief
DeSantis admits himself that this is not due to testing only, which has steadily been consistent.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/06/20/desantis-pivots-on-covid-19-surge-says-testing-doesnt-account-for-spike-1293901
Rising Star
Need to also consider California and the massive gatherings (i.e. protests) that are suddenly back in again. People that are posting only about TX, FL, and AZ are cherry picking the facts that support their own views of red states that are reopening = bad.
Also, if you take a look a level deeper at where the surge is occurring in these states, it's in their bluest counties (Harris Cty, TX; Miami Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward Cty, FL). This does not support your attempt to portray states with a bunch of MAGA hat wearing, anti-maskers spreading coronavirus through red states.
Rising Star
No it’s an old one.... at least the 80s. Probably older.
100% agree. I will add one that should not be debatable, keep our seniors away safe.
Pro
I live in Florida in a city that’s been relatively not affected too bad, and none of the doctors or nurses that I’m personally friends with are concerned. The doctors get briefed on the data weekly. Having said that I know a doctor in Florida in a more impacted area and based on her fb posts (have not talked to her) she seems to be getting worried. You really can’t look at it at the state level. You have to examine each city/county individually.
Certainly a trend. Not able to scale Texas in my head. Is 3k beds a lot relative to capacity? Axis are important
Here is some Texas info provided by the state:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f
Chief
Florida here...I believe spike in numbers are due to spike in testing and slow release of data.. I've been out, although sparingly over the past 2 weeks. Everyone wearing masks. Places even barring entry without one and selling them at the front door. Most restaurants offering outdoor seating only.
This is the experience where I live so might differ someplace else in the state.
I get that, I just hate the whole testing numbers being used for any argument. The confirmation of its existence is neither an indication or its growth or decline. It is simply an indication of how many people were tested. At this stage, it means very little with respect to where things stand. Hospitalizations & deaths are more significant. Florida chose not to disclose numbers for a while, it didn’t mean they didn’t have them. Likewise the tests only speak to a very narrow subset of the population. Specifically, those tested.
Chief
NYC didn’t flatten the curve. They rode the wave. All of these other states locked down before things got out of hand (because it hadn’t spread yet), and now they’re going to ride the wave, too.
I see so many posts about this and none of you people ever give anything tangible about what we’re supposed to be doing. Can you define “the right protocols”?
Chief
“You people”? Lol.
You can do what other countries and states that have been able to mitigate deaths have done: increasing per capita testing on a state-side (or federal) level, establishing contact tracing procedures on a state-wide (or even federal) level, mandating the use of PPE like masks on a state-wide (or even federal) level, and using objective, science-based metrics for reopening instead of, well, the fact that some people want to go see their barbers.
Florida used an inane “we need to open up to save the economy” metric for reopening that did not take into account the number of PPE and ventilators available, the number of ICU beds available, etc.
Also, NYC flattened the curve. What is your made-up phrase meant to communicate? There are states that are seeing a sharp decrease in new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (NYS is one of them). The curve has been flattened by imposing a strict lockdown, mandating the use of masks, and shutting down non-essential services until community spread could be decreased.
There are states that are seeing a sharp increase in new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (Florida is one of them). Florida does not want to lockdown. Florida is not mandating masks. Florida is not shutting down non-essential businesses. Their curve is about to explode exponentially with literally nothing in place to stop community spread. There’s a massive difference and you seem to not understand it because you think this is some kind of political debate.
Join the Texas bowl.
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