Do you forecast a global recession in the next 12 months? Quite a few negative triggers are pending to influence the global economy (e.g., trade wars, Brexit, Chinese demand slump etc.). WDYT?

likeupliftingsmart
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^ what buying real estate at the high point

likefunnysmart

^you want to slap your father for doing things with his own money? The entitlement is thick on you.

likefunnysmart
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A2- I feel sorry for you

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A2 talks big until another 2008 roles around and they’re unemployed or vastly underpaid.

Well even more underpaid then they already are are Accenture

likefunnyuplifting

The economy is strong despite our despot leader. Fed slowing rate hikes. Employment is high, consumer and biz confidence high, we may slow the roll but I think we have 24 months before a recession and it will prob be a correction followed by slow growth, nothing like 2008 (fingers crossed)

likesmart

But some people here think they’re different “I’m a consultant, smart, driven, and went to a great school”. Congrats, in an 08 recession you’re a dime a dozen. Go to a good school and you’re one in a thousand. Companies got thousands of applications for one entry level role. The job requirements were set in stone, and even if you met all of them they may not even interview you. It sucked and unless your were very well connected odds are you didn’t come out unscathed.

Anyone hoping for an 08 repeat is either young, naive, or stupid. And I’m being very polite with that description.

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Recession - yes. Global - no. Donald trump is only putting America into a recession but the smart Chinese will work around the tariffs and still achieve enough growth to sustain the rest of the world economy

likefunny

And A4 is why exactly why we need to tax the shit out of inheritances.

But yeah, although the economy is cyclical when we talk about ups and downs its an odds game. Something could trigger a recession tomorrow or we could be fine for another 10 years.

Now with the dumbfuck in chief the odds of a bad trigger get higher. But its not a certainty.

likefunny

Nobody in the world and certainly on this forum can answer this question save for maybe Ray Dalio who has dedicated his life to studying and making a lot of money for himself and clients on his macro predictions. Anyone that thinks they can either has gotten lucky in the past or does a rosy lens accounting of previous moves. I want to slap my father every time he tries to move money around during market changes - he is squandering my inheritance by trying to time the market. If you knew how to time the market with certainly you wouldn’t be working or be as rich as ray dalio

likefunnysmart

I hope so, I want to see another 2008 because I just started my career and I want cheap stocks and funds. OTOH, we’ve been bullish for a decade with no recession in sight.

likesmart

@A2 if you just started your career and we hit another 2008 recession, you will be the first one let go

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They’ve been forecasting recession by 2020 for the last 2 years. Banks are already tightening money in anticipation. Just a matter of time

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A2 it's all fun and games until it's you without a job, unless you're a trust fund baby or another delusional Trump supporter ("my crops are rotting but I'm WINNING #MAGA")

I think there will be a slowdown next year, definitely seeing cautionary indicators. Just hope that most of you are not affected because it sucks (I faced 2008)

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Slight slow down. Been preparing the last two years via real estate investments

funny

Secret hint: try to get on projects that are recession proof (not manufacturing but industries like healthcare) so that you can ride out any possible recession in the upcoming year

likehelpful

I was there when the mortgage crisis happened lol. Actually was in a top tier investment bank as an analyst trading subprime and prime mortgages. Fun times. I’m not concerned about job security because I know I can easily pivot into anything else I want to do

funny

Yes. It feels like something has to break soon

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A3, can you be more specific regarding the real estate? Have you been selling properties in anticipation of a future drop in prices?

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EY2 - market in general is at a high point, so unless I want to sit on cash you’ve gotta invest somewhere. Real estate that I don’t plan on exiting anytime soon as an income generating property seems like a pretty decent play. That or bonds I suppose 🤷🏻‍♂️

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@A6, the answer is a little nuanced. I think I’m paid appropriately for the work I do and the money I’ve put in the market has done well. But there’s the unseen loses that hurt employees like me during 08, especially people in their 20s and 30s.

Companies were flat out not hiring, in some cases withdrawing signed offer letters, and letting people go left and right. I lost my job and ended up taking a lower level job because I needed to pay the bills. I lost a lot of years to a new lower salary and less disposable income to save and invest. That income and experience will never come back, and while I’m doing well again there’s a good chance the recession hurt me and a lot of people’s professional development. Cont.

likehelpful

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