{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "Do you guys really think that the Coronavirus will simmer down and we can somewhat resume being “normal” by May? Trying to be hopeful but also realistic...", "post_id": "5e9026db1f23440027eacaef", "reply_count": 20, "vote_count": 5, "bowl_id": "5e6fe1c31f5e51001d267e46", "bowl_name": "The Work-Life Bowl", "feed_type": "bowl" }

Do you guys really think that the Coronavirus will simmer down and we can somewhat resume being “normal” by May? Trying to be hopeful but also realistic...

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no

likesmart

Not a snowballs hope in hell.

As far as I’m aware from the research papers I’ve read (haven’t read many, mainly the ones the U.K. gov is using out of Imperial + WHO reports on China) the most realistic strategy ATM is to wait for a vaccine and ‘manage’ the peaks until then by flipping between stricter and looser lock-down measures. That means some version of control for probably a year and a half, maybe 2+ years.

I guess if you can massively boost ICU, test and tracing capacity then it may be possible to have quite a few periods of relatively ‘normal’ life for a while before cases climb and stricter measures have to be brought back in. I haven’t seen any modelling of this yet though. Has anyone else?

Some of the more important as-yet unknowns that could get this over with faster:
1. What is the infection to symptom development ratio - hence the need for antibody test. If loads of people are a-symptomatic then that’s good news, but from memory the WHO report in China didn’t think it was a high percentage.
2. Can China beat this thing permanently, in which case having a longer but very strict lockdown could potentially get this over with in 3-4 months.
3. What are all the economic and medical variables you need to balance lockdown against when considering your re-lockdown triggers - I.e. how many people will the recession kill vs the excess mortality of the virus and how do you always balance this to stay in the side of ‘greatest good to the greatest number’. Excess mortality is a particularly useful number that I haven’t reliably seen calculated yet?

Long post, but hey, I’m stuck in my new bedroom office for the foreseeable and am VERY bored.

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I don't think people will tolerate staying inside past April. They'll need to up enforcement if they want til end of May.

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Yes chief

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If it’s like the Spanish FLu it will come back in waves.

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Epidemiologist and scientists all are comparing to the Spanish flu. I literally just posted an article so in fact they can be compared.

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What even is normal these days? I walked into my bathroom and was surprised by this big metal thing hanging out of the wall. And then I remembered - oh it’s “a shower”.

likefunny

I think it will depend on if we can get antibody tests out soon and what the results show. I read that some Stanford researchers have a theory that it came to California in fall and the state may already have some level of herd immunity. If that proves to be true maybe the West Coast could open up in roll outs in May. Who knows, but this week has me optimistic.

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Antibody tests are out just not accurate. Sorry to burst your bubble

I was reading an article where they’ve been sequencing the virus from patients in New York and the strains are from Europe and have been circulating in NY since at least January. We need to roll out antibody testing and see who has had this thing already.

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Yup, I was estimating 1 year to a year and a half

Mr Pres just wants a way to forego the election this fall, hence is shit response. There’s more than one way to suppress the vote-just look at WI.

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No

Not if we can't test pretty much every single American

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