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Yes, it will be anoter crisis in between 2000-2001 and 2008-2010 recessions. Fed printed $$$ since 2010 (QEs for 10 years plus 2020 covid emergency that included fiscal policy). Now inflation is evident (both asset inflation of stocks/bonds/RE) as well as CPI (price inflation). Supply chain issues are complication factor (adding more fire to). Fed has no other option than try to fight inflation: 1) increase short term rates
to 2.5-3 max (otherwise Uncle Sam will go broke); and 2) QE in reverse (or QT).
The next leg down on the asses inflation will be caused by liquidity (QT has not started yet). Let’s see what they do starting in June, if they are serious about fighting inflation, the market will go down another 20-40%. Watch out for thr credit markets…. something will break (creating liquidity issues) that will force Fed to reverse to QE…. So we will have inflation + recesion…. It is not looking good at all. US economy is like a drug addict to QE/zero interest rates…. we know what happens next (no soft landing if you have ever seen that movie)
And you are only referring to FED. Same applies to European Central Bank etc. on a global level.
Yes but no idea when. It could be next year or in 50 years.
Pro
E1 gets it.
My money is on a recession but not full-on a banking crisis. It may be a full blown crisis for the crypto / defi ecosystem though
We are in the longest span of economic growth of all time. Inflation at 40 year highs. Worst start to a year of all time. Dependent on China that is still shut down. Homes being bought up in mass by hedge funds. Highest federal balance sheet of all time. More money printed in two years than all of our nations history combined.
Tbh we don’t deserve a recession. We earned a depression.
Enthusiast
Yes, but we'll come up with a catchier name for it this time. "Financial crisis" sounds so generic.
Enthusiast
Love it, JPMC!
Honestly I worked at the CBOT in risk through all of 2008 etc. and simply because there are so many negative prognosticators makes me believe we won’t see anything like the generational crisis before (although it was the greatest/most painful buying opportunity in decades for people like me). We likely have more downside risk, but the extreme negative opinions are ALWAYS there and listening to them completely (buy nothing but gold - SMH 🤦🏼♂️) has never worked out in the long run…
Obviously I’m talking about close time periods. We should expect something similar to 2008 again for sure. Everyone being so reactive and immediately negative reads as though this is today NOT one of those times (though a bear market / recession / stock sale is not off the table 🙂)
It will start with airlines. Boeing will be the first one to go.
ECD1, why Boeing? potential cancellations? Airlines due to delay in business travel recovery? Because flights are busy… with personal travellers. Just curious, have no clue about Hospitality industry
The airlines industry can’t survive with oil at these prices. Their margins are already gone, the pandemic made the shot, now oil crises will put it to bed. Another sector will take a hit is tech, their high valuations created a false safety sentiment and a lot of leverage was created due to valuations. Now the question is if the pendulum will stop in the middle or not.
I need one
Enthusiast
I don’t know but we made it last time and I suspect we will again.