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New to Fishbowl?
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
Yes. Yesterday
Economists have been saying there’s a pending recession since about 2018. I personally think that COVID-19 was just the spark that lit the powder keg.
July 2020
The Future...Now
Market goes through cycles of boom and bust and a bear cycle had been long due. Most people thought apocalypse was upon us when the market started showing signs of a crash towards end of 2018 but that wasn’t it. Agree with C1 that this was just the spark. Hopefully we come out of it soon.
A guy on CNBC this morning said we have a 20% chance of a depression.
Nov 2020
Politics matters. Trump (or any POTUS) will spend to keep it afloat. Once he doesn't need to worry about re-election, he'd let it burn.
We need a blood-letting. This Coronavirus saga proves there are too many low margin businesses floating on debt or low cash reserves. But they're going to be bailed out for now.
A lot of businesses provide too little value to exist, but are able to survive off the back of Big Tech platforms. They need to scale and become independent of these platforms.
This summer and fall, Jan next year we going back up
It's happening right now. The data to confirm it just hasn't come out.
It’s already here. Markets are already predicting a downturn. It’s definitely going to show in April and May. Canceling large conferences, sports events, travel, working remote, businesses closing, no dine-in at restaurants, cutting the funds rate, oil prices, and more will have huge ripple effects for many months across many industries. Unemployment will spike, earnings drop, etc.
We are in it. Unemployment is going to be massive this month. I hope the pandemic passes soon.