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Do you think we are going into a recession?

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Yes, inflation has drastically increased, and so has rental/mortgage amounts compared to income. I have friends who I make roughly the same and they're living above their means. If federal student loans start up again then they won't be saving anything.

Once the 'gunpowder' from covid leaves majority of bank accounts people will stop spending. The good part about this is the people who are well positioned will make a ton of money

I think this is a reset of all the money that was overly pumped to avoid turmoil from the pandemic . This is a necessary repricing and adjustment . If you have a balanced portfolio that is properly allocated to your risk profile , you should be fine. This is a good opportunity to review your exposure , time horizon and evaluate " hey , maybe these growth stocks aren't for me " , or maybe I need to trim and add something else for suitable , etc or vice versa . Will there be increased volatility , sure , but there has always been volatility . People tend to forget .

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Yes

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Already in it

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I see many comments here that tell me many people do not know what a recession is. A recession is 2 consecutive negative quarters. We had 1, so far. If this quarter is negative, which it will most likely be, we will be in one. So those that say we are in one, are incorrect, and those that say we won’t be in one for a while, are mostly likely incorrect as well.

likesmart

Apparently that’s the only place it’s defined…. Maybe they should hand them out to everyone.

likesmart

No, I think consumer confidence will keep us afloat. Many companies are investing in operations in Mexico to bypass supply chain issues and inflation may be offset with some wage increases in some industries. Just an optimistic thought

likefunny

I would agree, but consumer confidence is also at a low.

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We’re in a recession

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Transitory stagflation followed by a recession?

likesmart

This year and the next year will be the two darkest years of your life.

likefunny

We have been in recession for 2 years! The so-called growth was all inflation and stimulus spending. The emperor has no clothes!

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2 consecutive quarters with negative gdp by definition is a recession. Q1 was negative and doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know we are likely going to be negative q2

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Yes, no doubt. Remember, recessions are a normal part of the cycle...

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We are boom bust but it usually takes around a decade…

We’re already in the midst of it right now

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Yes, though the impact hasn’t been that devastating yet. Wouldn’t be surprised if things got significantly worse. It’s a necessary evil for the longevity of the economy

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50/50, But before I explain, Biden and the Democrats caused this run away inflation by spending 3.5 Trill on infrastructure/COVID (Our Economy was already recovering and the pandemic was winding down, no need to print all that money). Also continuing unemployment benefit for far to long (People we’re making on average $600 more a week then they were when working, which deterred them from coming back to the workforce). Inflation will be the determining factor in pushing the US into recession. The only way we dodge it, is if the labor market stays tight, consumer spending doesn’t fall off a cliff and if corporate earnings hold up. Recently, the big retailers (Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes) are foreshadowing major inventory builds in their earnings reports which points to slowing of consumer spending (Not good). The chances of a soft landing by the FED is still possible but again it’s really going to depend on inflation, the supply chain, and if the war Ukraine ends relatively soon.

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It feels that way. But who knows. Can't control it anyways.

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Yes, first of all we are already half way there officially speaking. Second of all, we are about to see a huge retraction in economic activity because of inflation (war in Ukraine and chinas no covid policy are not temporary). Also, the fed is going to continue to pump interest rates until inflation starts seeing a decline (with prices still increasing today that is highly unlikely that they are gonna stop in Q2/Q3).

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We are 1000% in a recession.

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Yes without a doubt - there will be no such thing as a “soft landing”

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We’re already in one. It just hasn’t affected everyday America yet so it’s not in news.

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You can’t officially call it a recession unless the econometric measurement has actually occurred. It’s defined as two successive quarters where there has been a decline in GDP.

But I otherwise agree, we are most definitely in a recession.

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Nope. Not until 2024 or after

funny

For you to be right, the next quarter would have to be positive GDP, and it won’t be. The definition of a recession is 2 consecutive negative GPD quarters, and we already had one.

likehelpful

The current probability of the US having a recession in the next 12 months is calculated to be a 30% probability, in other words “it’s definitely coming”

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