{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "Explain to me how peak curve projections can be so wrong? Chicago’s prediction was peak will be late-April but now model is saying mid-June. What are the variables?", "post_id": "5ebb4966fa92a6001a4ad54d", "reply_count": 24, "vote_count": 6, "bowl_id": "5e6fe1c31f5e51001d267e46", "bowl_name": "The Work-Life Bowl", "feed_type": "bowl" }

Explain to me how peak curve projections can be so wrong? Chicago’s prediction was peak will be late-April but now model is saying mid-June. What are the variables?

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Moving goal posts..

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Early predictions had tons of variability due to lack of knowledge about the virus and societal response. With more knowledge and action, we have updated estimates.

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^ this and only this

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Why did you think the models had any idea what was going to happen with a new / unknown virus!

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You really think another three weeks is really providing any meaningful change? I don’t.

Those house parties you keep hosting on the weekends...

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But I’m social distancing. I’m six feet or more apart from the other parties!

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mitigation will actually push out the peak because it reduces the doubling time. when comparing two curves, it's misleading to only compare one value like timing of peaks. i'd want to know, what is the timing of the peak, how high is it, what's the doubling time leading to it, what's the halving time leading down from it.

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Exactly. The models would have considered this. Also, if this were about anything but delay you’d have seen the peak also shrink significantly. It hasn’t.

No model exists that can capture the dynamics of disease transmission while levels of societal shut-down we haven’t seen in > 100 years are implemented, with varying adherence by geography and time. Most forecasts are from compartmental epidemiological models that treat disease transmission as resulting from random interactions at a constant rate or simulation models with crude approximations of human behavior expressed as probability distributions.

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What this says is that Illinois PEAK PERIOD will end in mid June. A peak period is described as having between 50-150 deaths per day. This is not saying that we won't hit our peak until Mid-June. This clarification between peak period and peak is very important. They are 2 vastly different statements. So the fact that they think we will be under 50 deaths a day by June is a very very good thing!

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I feel like Pritzker hasn't done a good job explaining this. "Peak" makes me think top of the mountain, not everything before the tail. And I think the rest of the states and federal gov have been using peak to mean top of the mountain. He can't just change the definition mid way through. Just call it something else and tell us why both points are important.

Because this has no precedent and everyone is making stuff up to alleviate fear and learning every day

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Would you prefer the scientists stand there and say “we have no idea when this will peak as this is new so sample size is relatively small and there’s too many variables”? That would make me more worried honestly

Pretty sure the models will say mid November in another month or so - gotta shut things down until at least Nov 4

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Have you ever worked with models? If you have no initial data/small sample size to base your assumptions on it would be kinda difficult to get any sort of accurate prediction. Add to that the many many variables including behavioural aspects of human beings and maybe even pressure to provide a “good” result. This is just the best we’ve got at the moment.

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Wait until you see the climate models. It's always a novel system, therefore the models are perpetually wrong, but they'll do better next time. We entered a grand solar minimum. Summer in Texas already isn't as hot. You heard it here first!

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Additional Posts

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New posts and

Not crashing anymore.

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Post for tests 2

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Yeah you're right. It cuts after two lines instead of expanding.

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Testing at 9am EST

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Cl bl lb. l fot

test on 1.1.5!

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Do you see this post? 12:59am

Correct font and company!

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Post to test

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Post for push testing

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Post for likes! 😤

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Beyond 2 lines the text in each post card is cut off. I wonder how many lines in the comment section?

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Looking good! Create post animation looks great too and so does the character count!

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