Chief
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"post_content": "For believers in attempting to achieve herd immunity - please help me understand your perspective. \n\nExperts indicate 50-70% of a pop is required for herd immunity, so at 50% we need 165M ppl. \n\nNYC, the hardest hit area, has some estimates of up to 25% people w/ antibodies. If we assume only 1 in 4 cases are confirmed via test, then only 9.5M people in USA have been infected, and a rate of 100-125K infections per day. This would mean we need 1234 days to reach immunity, or not until 11/8/2023",
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Rising Star
Interesting analysis. My question would be does the R-naught decline as exposure increases or remain constant until herd immunity is hit.
Rising Star
But we have seen R0 fluctuate significantl. Doing linear regression on an exponential curve doesn't work..
Don’t forget that SARS-1 produced an antibody response for 2 years. Assuming SARS-2 is similar, by November of 2023 a lot of early infected folks will be losing their antibody response and will again be susceptible to infection.
Chief
I hate to nitpick but the key wording is “might be susceptible to reinfection”.
Chief
If we continue at ~300-350 deaths per day average (note: peak in April was around 1600 daily deaths), then that means a total of 555K people will die. If you want to argue, no in fact only 10% of the cases are caught via test, then in order to achieve 50% infection rate we need 448 more days, or not until 9/14/2021 and a total of 280K deaths. All of this is assuming a 50% rate to achieve herd immunity. If the rate needed is 70% and we assume 25% of cases are caught, then we need 1760 more days to achieve herd immunity, or 4/15/2025 and will experience a total of 740K deaths.
Chief
Death rate will go down over time as there are better treatments. Also, a lion share of the deaths so far have been in nursing homes, which are likely closer to herd immunity than the general population.
Chief
And before anyone gets upset at the analysis not taking into account X, Y, Z - please calm down, just doing a very simple back of the envelope sizing to get a directional sense
Rising Star
That's an opinion piece with no balance. Please try to fond a real study. I looked a couple weeks ago when this became a popular topic and at that point there weren't any. Opinions and anecdotes.
Chief
What is the currently available alternative to herd immunity? There is no rock solid proven effective treatment or vaccine. There is no guarantee that there will be a proven effective treatment or vaccine in the near future. Do you think it’s realistic to keep the economy shut down forever? For years? What is your alternative plan?
Enthusiast
Herd immunity only works if enough people can get it and if it's a lasting, durable immunity. If antibodies from active infection end up only sticking around for a year or less, we will need to figure something else out.
Enthusiast
One issue would be that currently it’s unknown if antibodies protect against reinfection.
Enthusiast
Other people have asked that as well. I don’t know what it means. Maybe you’d have to get a new one every year (like the flu vaccine) as Covid mutates.
Chief
The counterpoint would be there is not faith in a vaccine.
What do you all not understand about the parabolic nature of disease transmission? A linear extrapolation is an understatement.
Rising Star
OP, if R0 is greater than 1 it is exponential. You can have different exponential curves, and getting R0 close to or under 1 is critical.
Enthusiast
This is really thoughtful and delightfully simple - thanks for sharing :)
Seems like herd immunity is what people want based on their actions now days. I suppose 2M+ deaths is worth it to some
You are the same person that believes the data from China when it is convenient to your views.
Realistically, vulnerable populations will need to shelter in place and isolate rather than the entire populace. It’s not a binary matter of the entire country being exposed or not at all.
Chief
EY1 - I agree with you there. However, I don't see the majority of people who are calling for herd immunity also call for additional measures (nor is our federal/many state leadership calling for it either)