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Honest question. Do you understand what their strategy is?
It is expected that they would have more deaths up front. I think we can do a more fair assessment in a year from now. You’re deciding the winner of a marathon 4 miles in here.
Chief
The modeling in the past that was wrong was forecasting based off of no real data. We have data now, and the forecast is only one month and based off of a random sample. The article says it was 7.3% as of late April and is estimated to be 20% now.
If you think the number is less than 20% (despite the freedom of movement), then the virus isn’t as contagious as we were led to believe - which is a good thing.
Saying Stockholm isn’t Sweden is like saying NYC isn’t NY. You’re technically right, but for all intents and purposes, same thing. If I could go back and edit my post, I would.
Googled this - apparently the most dense area in the Stockholm metro area is 4900 people per sq km. I think there are three other large places (100k+ people) in Sweden where it goes higher than 1,000 per sq. meter.
Chief
A graph with one variable for something that has many many variables. Nice.
Chief
Awww someone’s feelings are hurt. Poor baby.
Nobody is shoving anything down your throat. You complained about lack of data, I presented data, you don’t want to read it or respond. That’s fine. Happens all the time. Literally nothing will make you satisfied, unless maybe I present something that aligns to your thinking?
Also - I didn’t have much opinion about Sweden either way until I talked to two Swedes on this app, one of whom shared this paper. I thought it was very interesting. But I’m still willing to admit to the caveat that this paper is limited by time horizon as well, so I’m happy to see updates down the road and maybe I’ll change my mind later. But I am not the kind too lazy to read something serious while also complaining about lack of good research.
https://joinfishbowl.com/post_snr2m
Rising Star
ABBA ain't going to be happy.
Enthusiast
The winner takes it all... the loser has to fall
Let’s keep it real: Some people (At least here in the US) look at Sweden as an example because Sweden is white and people’s views are rooted in white supremacy. Clearly South Korea and Singapore have a better handle on the situation than Sweden and are better models to emulate.
I’m also shocked and baffled by the “front loading deaths” argument. I don’t want my government to “front load” my grandmas death. I’ll give all the money I have to get the extra months with her.
I’m glad to live in the Bay Area where the government appears to be more committed to protecting everyone. If I was Swedish and had the means to get my parents/grandparents out here instead of leaving them in Sweden, I would do it ASAP.
Chief
There is never “enough” information. In the real world, you make the best decisions you can and live with them. Only in school textbooks are problems given with perfect information to find the one correct solution.
At the end of the day, 4,000 deaths, with more than half in nursing homes, is a clear failure to protect the elderly... but it is not a clear indicator that remaining open was the wrong decision. The entire point of this was to avoid overrunning the hospital systems which Sweden did. Not reduce deaths to 0.
Along the same lines, Sweden’s strategy is sustainable. You know how everyone is pissed about a potential second wave in the USA? Sweden isn’t worried about that because they never were cooped up — their strategy would work for up to a year (vaccine timeline) whereas ours fizzled out within 45-60 days.
South Korea’s strategy is to text everyone wherever someone with Covid was sighing 500 meters. That’s a fantastic strategy and I approve, but that violation of privacy doesn’t happen in the western world.
To be clear, I don’t think the USA could have followed Sweden’s strategy. But I’m frustrated that people are saying that 4,000 deaths is an utter disaster. If other countries like Denmark and Norway had known the worst it can get is around that much (adjusted per capita), I’m not convinced they would shut down.
Chief
Seems like this is for those NOT arguing that Sweden is a success story...
Enthusiast
Agree with EY1. It’s too early to tell.
Rising Star
Arguing aside, what’s the reason for the “steps” in the trend?
Weekends, likely
Compared to the US, UK, and Brazil, Sweden is fine.
You do realize that Sweden’s population is 10m?
Pro
Seems like people are generally ok with Sweden’s approach. Wonder if the US did this, how many people would blame trump for not shutting it down or saying this approach is stupid. Just Monday musings....
Rising Star
Approach should probably differ with ICU/ventilator capacity and population density.
I’m just saying, if people promoting Sweden were smart, they would abandon Sweden and look at Japan. Sweden is not a great example at the moment. No lockdown happened, economy badly impacted, not close to herd immunity and massive deaths way out of comparison with its neighbors.
Enthusiast
It is easier to control a society that is not diverse...
Enthusiast
Also it is important to note that Three-quarters of those who have died have been either in nursing homes or receiving at-home care...they are taking the hit now and not prolonging to multiple phases
No country is getting close to herd immunity at this time, not even the nordics. Time will tell. Being hard hit like Sweden or Spain, both following different strategies, have got them closer to that ideal at this time. In Spain , preliminary studies show that 5-15% of those exposed got some sort of immunity. It seems you need at least a 60% success rate to be closer to Herd immunity. Other countries are well below that target rate as well
Enthusiast
Did you read the sentence under the title of the graph?
Enthusiast
Please understand their strategy first before critiquing it. They are essentially front-loading the deaths.
I think we might need to see what happens this winter and next spring. If herd immunity and they nail it, who knows.
Chief
Well. 3500 deaths is still not a ton. Per capita, that’s 100k deaths in the USA. If you had told the USA Covid would result in 100k deaths if we didn’t lock down—- we would not have locked down.
Also - Sweden has a 50% death in nursing homes. You have to divide that number in half if you want to critique their strategy
Chief
For the record, I think the USA did a terrible job. I’m just pointing out that you simply cannot control 330M people. It’s impossible. And the USA should have realized this and taken this virus seriously in December. They should have started making masks and tests back then.
Sweden has a very distinct difference in demographics and living habits from countries like Italy. The percentage of the population living alone is very high comparatively in Sweden. Italy is nearly the polar opposite. Family spread is a very significant contributor to our infection rate.
Chief
A chart that shows “total” is trending upwards.
You could slope the chart however you wanted to give the desired interpretation.