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100k
(Probability of being fined $1m * $1m) - ((P[fined $1m] - 10%) * $1m) = expected benefit of implementing solution relative to baseline expectation
If your project has a 100% chance of eliminating 10% risk of being fined $1m, then yes 100k benefit. This would make sense if your whole model is meant just to improve fines. But if this is just a potential side benefit, then I’d factor in the likelihood of the reduction as well (for example: 75% chance of reducing 10% of fines would net you a 75k benefit on average instead of $100k)
Are all years independent from each other? If yes, $100k per year. If not (e.g., without the project, if you get fined in year 1 you’re much less likely to get fined in year 2) then the benefit of the project is no longer $100 per year.
Right AP1, if you’re projecting and discounting it back then you could measure the delta on company value instead of a per annum basis. 100k in a single period of a dcf might not be a compelling business case though.