{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "Home prices will take a down turn in a few years. Considering the number of permits outstanding for home constructions and the number of new constructions, US is on pace to be overbuilding as an overreaction to the recent shortages. Also, much of the recent demand are from investors rather than primary home buyers. How will they react to a small downturn? That remains to be seen. Not saying don’t buy your primary, but just be aware that not all is well.", "post_id": "621466cde62d1b002ec8c6cb", "reply_count": 198, "vote_count": 45, "bowl_id": "552d1d24dc1c586b09d2d051", "bowl_name": "Consulting", "feed_type": "crowd" }
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Home prices will take a down turn in a few years. Considering the number of permits outstanding for home constructions and the number of new constructions, US is on pace to be overbuilding as an overreaction to the recent shortages. Also, much of the recent demand are from investors rather than primary home buyers. How will they react to a small downturn? That remains to be seen. Not saying don’t buy your primary, but just be aware that not all is well.

likefunny
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Depends on the area. Not in metro areas.
With interest rates rising, any minor decrease in price will be compensated by the increase in interest. Monthly payments will roughly be the same. That is if you are not paying full cash.
I live in DC area and all signs point to further increases. Going to be more crazy in spring and summer.

An alternative take is that if global and US bond rates are forced to realign with inflation rates (go up), that higher rates would manifest as higher mortgage rates, leading to lower home prices. But cost of capital would be higher theoretically. Good for cash buyers and savers though.

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Bcg1 - your second sentence is the literal opposite of your first sentence. Selling for less = decreased prices.

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They’re making new humans but not new land

likefunnysmart

EYP1 - green space is increasing, as is the efficiency of food production. We doing just fine.

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The idea that we are overbuilding compared to demand is preposterous. We have had a chronic housing shortage for a long time, and there is no indication that we are about to solve that problem. Where did you get your numbers OP?

likesmart

A2 updates please

Depends on the state.

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Well, Florida will likely be under water in 20ish years so I guess the remaining non-swamp land will be more valuable?

funny

Considering we never built enough housing for millennial households and it’s not evenly distributed to where people want to move no. We’re not going back to 2008, but home prices might moderate but crash they will not.

Let’s put it this way if 3million people left California tomorrow, we would still need more houses in the state just to get back to normal.

likehelpful

I doubt it. !remindme 2 years

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IF this app is still exists in 2 years lol

funnylike

US should gut suburbs already.. There must be more multi-family development like in Western Europe

likefunny

Multi family suburban housing is the fastest growing US housing segment according to housing census data.

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No shot. People with cash will just continue to buy up the inventory and keep prices high.

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“Real estate investors can be large corporations, local companies or wealthy individuals, and they generally don’t live in the properties they are buying.”

Lol what a bad take

likefunny

This depends on the metro area or state. Some places are still very land-supply constrained.

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Good prediction from someone out of the RE market lol

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I’m not sure your forecast is accurate, but I’m assuming it’s not.

Please tell me this isn’t based on one random article you read and the observation that there is a new condo tower down your block.

There are a lot more factors at play and you can’t just make broad market predictions through random disjoint micro-inferences…

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D1 - have to admit that’s a good one! Haha

M3 - at least I feel like this is my experience…maybe I can’t speak for others…

likefunny

If you don’t have data to back this up or share I would say no

Source: work in real estate and heavily involved in long term market valuations on a residential and commercial level

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Is there a reminder function in this app? Home prices in major metros will be 10%+ higher in 5 years than they are today. Bookmark this comment. Housing supply means NOTHING. The quality and location of housing supply means EVERYTHING. You can build a million shizzboxes on the prairie in Kansas, guess what, no one wants to live there because there is zero economic activity and advancement. So again, remind me in 5 years when prime major metro real estate crashes 30% at any point during that time.

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shite, my sweet 4/3 a mile from the beach in LA is going up 10% this year alone even with rate hikes lol

The construction industry is not overbuilding. Why make statements without the supporting facts?

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Correct it’s not like we’re building nearly close to what it was back in 2007.

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Only thing that would bring down home prices would be a progressive property tax.

likeuplifting

I second that PS1

I just signed a new construction last month and now they are selling the same new construction for 100k more

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Same construction three years later is 350k more than when I bought. It’s not a discount, the prices are going up regardless of construction or not.

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Call me bubble boy

likefunny

Big short reference

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Overbuilding where? Seems like there has been such a deficit in home building since 2009 that it will take another decade to catch up.

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At least. That’s if the supply chain ever fixes itself to stabilize prices of things like lumber, let alone stabilize supply of things like bathroom fixtures.

@OP can you share the numbers/forecasts underpinning your expectation?

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