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Anyone getting distracted by IPL 😔
Howz the Josh?
Chief
At a macro level from what I hear, things are not as bad as people thought, but of course far worse than “usual”. It’s practically impossible to predict if the worst is behind us or not, but trends are more positive (economically speaking).
I’d also say, take all news with a grain of salt; because you as an individual is subject to different forces than a firm which is risk diversified in a lot of ways. A lot of us and our friends aren’t out of the woods yet, at least how I see it.
Chief
It’s a really hard question to answer, because it varies per person, company, sector etc etc, so I can’t really tell you what everyone imagined in detail, just that the sentiment consistently has been whatever doomsday scenario people had, it wasn’t that bad.
To your second point, yep that’s what I meant by firms are diversified people are not. In general there are pockets of positivity here and there along with generally stable businesses which is offsetting some stress.
The actions of firms should be a good barometer on the kind of shape they are in. For example, how much were start dates pushed? Did they give a stipend for a delayed start date? Did they keep an remote internship program going? Have they forced PTO?
Based on this criteria, it is clear in the United States the hardest hit are the mid sized firms who don't have the backing of a Big 4. LEK forced furlough and canceled internship program (with full time offers), Kearney pushing start dates 6 months with no stipend (apparently they got health care though) and OW with canceled internship and start dates pushed up to 6 months with no stipend.
AP1, yea the two cases I know starting on time at ATK are internationals so that could be it. Thanks
Rising Star
Not ideal (obviously) but it’s not as bad as we thought it would be, at least not yet.
Chugging along.
Promotions are still on track, likely reduced bonuses and no profit-sharing this year.
My hypothesis is a 20% reduction in the size of the consulting market in 2020. Does that fit with your expectations?