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Chief
Since the end of WW2 wars of aggression to acquire territory have been very rare. China in Tibet, Iraq in Kuwait.
This itself won't escalate into WW3 or anything like that. But it signals scary things about the weakness of the international system.
🤔…thinking about March 2020…this will end in 2 weeks.
Pro
This will be over in a few weeks. Just like the last half a dozen Russian invasions of Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, etc.
This one will not end with Russia in charge of Ukraine, though. The sanctions in place will cripple the Russian economy, and I doubt Putin survives in charge.
Russians love a good coup.
> Russians love a good coup
They have to believe it's justified. Story on Russian reactions we get in the West is very, very different than the story Russian public is getting (and, ostensibly, believes).
There is a very, very long road ahead to convincing Russians that Putin is wrong enough to force him out, violently or otherwise.
If NATO does nothing militaristic in nature to intervene, probably a repeat of 2014 with more Russian backlash when it’s over.
If NATO does but US doesn’t join in, then severe continental conflict.
If US joins the fray, military speaking, there is no telling.
Putin is calling NATOs bluffs to see how far he can push and using the world as collateral. I could see Putin getting ousted when Russia is sent back to the economic state Germany found itself in post WW1
Because the Falkland islanders voted 99% in a referendum to remain British
Rising Star
This is like Iraq invading Kuwait, but the reason Iraq's invasion in the end failed is because it was still small enough to get beaten around by the US/Europe.
If Russia takes over Ukraine, what happens? The rest of the world will condemn it, impose sanctions, but that's it. Nobody will go to war with them. Ukraine will make the Russians miserable in a guerilla war, but nobody from the outside will come save them.
One big concern would be if a country like China sees this and thinks "Well nobody will fight me either. Let's see what I can get away with".
China is already pushing with Taiwan (the last few days).
Reality of MAD is that it enables traditional warfare first mover advantage. Push comes to shove, no one is responding to aggressions of a nuclear power _because_ we know where that type of escalation leads in a tit-for-tat scoring system.
Rising Star
Currently, I'd say the situation is a 6. It will have worldwide impacts, but the actual warfare is pretty isolated.
That being said, If NATO gets directly involved, this could easily turn into a 10 really quick. That's what everyone is so scared about.
There's no way in hell that NATO will get involved beyond sanctions. Everyone has too much to lose and too little to win. I'll give it a 3 (it is a land war in Europe after all)
I’m waiting to see what Poland does. Having Russia on their doorstep is not good. I would not be shocked if they put in to join the fight asking to do so outside of NATO
This is why each country should get a handful of nuclear weapons. 2nd amendment.
Rising Star
A2, the logic of mutually assured distraction, though MAD, are sound.
If you look a the carnage of the American Civil War, the Boxer Rebellion, WW1, WW2: tens and tens of millions dead, you will see that there is no amount of *conventional* warfare that acts as a deterrent. Countries are always willing to keep fighting. Nukes make simply not playing the game the best option. There has been no large conflict between super powers as a result. All the fighting is proxy fights.
Chief
2 on your scale. Especially if you are in NA or Australia. Basically it will end in a stalemate. Remember Crimea a few years ago?
Putin is power hungry. I think this is the 3rd (?) time he has made a military move immediately following the Olympics. I hope it doesn’t escalate into something worse than the other times.
So I am no expert, but based on previous Russian invasions give it a 4. It’s going to depend how the rest of the world reacts. Russia is supposedly the 2nd largest military in world, and Putin is unstable, so from that perspective it is alarming.
Part of me wonders if Putin is trying to trigger a larger war. I hope and pray that is not the case. I feel awful for the Ukraine.
Well apparently Russia is now attacking Lutsk. Literally at the doorstep of Poland. If they touch Poland then might as well call it WWIII bc that is how it will end.
Chief
M2 shut up wtf
Rising Star
Its significant escalation and historically this is perhaps the most dangerous period since the fall of the USSR.
Russia is engaging in what will become a hot war. Ukraine will fight back and if an errant missle hits a nato ally, we have for the first time, numerous nuclear powers on the brink.
Crimea was an escalation and this is a next step and former members of the Soviet Union will be on edge.
1. US will not lose(strategically, oil, $$$) if Ukraine falls like other nations where US had vested interest
2. The only possible lose is “the face” on world podium which I believe US can blame NATO and take a pass on it.
Ukraine invasion may open doors for China
1. China <-> Taiwan
2. China <-> Tibet
3. China <-> South China Sea (Vietnam and some other nations)
4. China <-> India (India’s Northeast border)
If India and China go to war; it will be WW 3. India will have no option but to use nukes there. Both countries have ICBMs, integrated in world economy and lot of influence on world stage