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Dead cat bounce
You don’t want to get a big refund but you may not want to owe a lot either. I always try to withhold to break even or owe a small amount
Last year I owed 3.5k. This year I owed 5k. I wait to pay as long as possible. That later payment adds up quite a bit over time on interest earned.
My take is that refunds are a wasted opportunity to invest.
I withhold the minimum required to avoid penalties. I update projections each quarter of how much I need to pay the following 4/15 and am prepared to owe whatever amount through saving my paycheck in February/March before the payment date.