I really think all you need to know about the stock market is that you just dollar cost average index funds. If I was a little younger I would tell people to start young and go close to 100 equities. The only concern is a Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s or a depression level event but both seem highly unlikely. Tax benefits of index funds and average annual gains make them most attractive.

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I think theres a little - or a lot - more risk than that. There have been several events since 1929 that caused the DJIA or a back-casted S&P500 to give negative returns over a multi-year period. It’s happened twice in the last 20 years and today’s setup indicates we’ll likely see another one in the next decade. If you can DCA your way through that and not care that you have less money than you did before, that’s fine. Many people aren’t willing to do that. It’s better than selling out and waiting until the next top to buy in. But I think many people can do things to take better control of their finances. Simply rejecting a stock only or US only allocation will go a long way to improving risk adjusted returns.

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You’re probably right. I did DCA when I was younger. Lost 45% of my small pile in 2008 but I kept putting in. I’m 43 now and don’t want to loose what I think will mostly be a lost decade for the S&P going forward. So I sold all my index funds in Feb and do individual positions now. Here’s where I think it’s a little different for people under 35 now, tho - as an indexer I benefited from monster runs in FAANG. Indexers in the S&P for nothing from Tesla’s growth. Now it’s there 6th largest position. Sub-optimal. My point isn’t that indexing sucks - it’s that it’s not the perfect solution and 100% in SPY certainly isn’t.

Yes, I agree. However, you need to have the appetite for possibly needing a decade to regain losses from black swan events. That has never not happened so is solid advice for someone that is young and has time to recover a crash. Another 1929 event would be way worse, but if that happens again, we have problems all around

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1929 was result of weak Fed and insider corruption. Pump and dumps on RCA.

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