{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "I think the stock market is going to crash any day. Should I have my 401k and index funds moved from high risk to low risk allocations or should I just ride the crash and not time the market?", "post_id": "5ee6d553472e8d00222906e8", "reply_count": 31, "vote_count": 5, "bowl_id": "5e6fe1c31f5e51001d267e46", "bowl_name": "Coronavirus Work-life" }

I think the stock market is going to crash any day. Should I have my 401k and index funds moved from high risk to low risk allocations or should I just ride the crash and not time the market?

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It doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing decision. If you think current equity valuations are too frothy (and you wouldn’t be alone) but you think there’s some wisdom in the advice to not time the market, you could just reduce your equity exposure without completely cashing out and reallocating. Play it both ways.

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This doesnt have to be all or nothing. For my personal investment account i hold about 20% in short term treasuries max and dca anything over that. Then I invest: 50% of that after a 10% drop Half of the remaining after 20% And the remainder after 30%

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Don’t time the market

likesmart

Three words: Think long term.

likesmart

Never try and time the markets. What makes you think that you are better at timing the markets or noticing bear market signs than the supercomputers that JPM, Deutsche, or Goldman have spent billions of dollars building?

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Stop loss trades allows one to trade nearly instantly through their brokerage. Only difference is the trader sets the rules, not an algorithm.

I’ll only pull out if Biden is close to winning the election ~late September timeframe

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I 100% agree D1, but if you’re confident and drop is incoming then do it. Plenty of people made tons of money on the covid drop. I’m confident a Joe Biden win will drop the market in the short term. I’m not confident it’ll drop for anything else. The safest bet is to leave it in and grow.

smart

All my stocks that crashed at the first wave were back up to where they started. Might crash again but they will come back up. If you pull out at the wrong time it could be bad. Just ride out long term

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I moved about half my portfolio to lower risk early last week. That was my hedge.

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OP, if you are close to retirement your fund allocation should reflect that. If you are not. are you : A) hoping to book some profits now and then get back in at the bottom? B) worried the markets are never hitting this level again till you retire?

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Depends OP. I personally think if you have more than 10 years to retirement you fear is unfounded. But given you are worried about it, your portfolio should be reflect your risk tolerance. To sell now hoping to get back in later may be a bad strategy (it may work, but it is a bad strategy). Assess your risk and determine a stocks:bonds:short term ratio and stick to it.

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I’m def no expert but in the end it’s your money. As long as you don’t early withdraw, the worst that can happen is that you’ll miss possible gains. If it drops, then buy back in. You’re just doing it on a much smaller scale.

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Minor allocations/shifts in your holdings are fine, but trying to time the market is never a good idea.

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Diversify agressively if not in funds. Also, consumer staple goods tend to survive stock crashes better than others.

Don't forget Defense!

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If you invested $10k in the S&P 500 in 1980, it would be worth $708k today. If you missed only the 10 best days during that period, your investment would only be worth $341k. Moral of the story: don’t try to time the market.

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