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The vast majority of people don't make it despite their best efforts.
Agreed. From top MBA schools I’d venture to say that any given day 50% of people who get first round interviews (which aren’t crazy selective at M7 schools) have what it takes to do well enough on the interviews to get an offer. They just have to string together enough good performances on cases to get it done.
Despite this, even at M7 schools out first round to offer rate is like <10%.
And this is at what I’d consider the “highest hit rate” pool of applicants. Only goes down from there when looking at experienced hires, etc.
In general the average Joe will not make it. Although perseverance can lead you to some places, keep in mind there is a lot of other folks as determined as you to join. Talent is (and will ever be) a factor.
But to give you some good news: MBB (and several other firms) design their selection process so that the false positive will be as close to zero as possible, but they don't care that much about false negative. In other words, they are more interested in leaving everyone not suited for the job out, even if that means leaving some good people out too; rather than the other way around. A rejection doesn't mean necessarily that you were not suited for the job.
The latter