I’m with an employer for 6 years now (with total 16 years of experience).
Current environment is great, great team, opportunities for growth within the company is good.

Found an offer with 40% hike outside.
My employer don’t want me to leave and ready to give up-to 30% hike.

One thing I heard them saying is , no one in the group makes what you will make after this 30% rise.

After hearing that I’m thinking, will it back fire me somehow if I continue to stay?
Thoughts?

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Hard situation. My 2 cents, if you really enjoy what you’re doing now, I would take the counter…. You can always jump ship in a couple of years if you want and find something better. I wouldn’t expect any merit raises in your current role though.

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If you stay, they’ll likely put you back into the salary band over time. It’ll be nice for short time, but never accept a counter offer.

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What you are saying is it’s okay to stay for short term but move on outside afterwards ?

Stay and take the 30%. Tell every one of your coworkers exactly what happened so that they can do the same thing and get a 30% raise for themselves. Seriously. Then everyone is making closer to their market rate.

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What are your aspirations? Do you want to pursue higher management positions, staff engineer route, architect roles, or something else entirely?

And to answer your question, it all depends on your manager, upper management, and the politics at your company. Even if they're giving you a 30% hike to try contending against the other company's offer, you'll have no idea whether you'll technically get punished for staying or not (small raises, getting let go, etc). Because your salary will now be extremely high compared to other Senior SWEs, your future yearly raises will probably remain small (1-3%) and probably no promotion unless your team is ready to lose a crucial Senior SWE (unless your company has different levels for Senior SWE positions).

My best piece of advice is to just consider all the possibilities. If you like your current job, really trust your current company, and don't mind potentially getting small raises the next few years, then you could consider staying. If you have bigger aspirations and want to grow/step out of your comfort zone, then you could take the new offer.

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