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Depends on what you want to do with your career.
I’ll provide a few other data points. From what I have seen, there are <100 PE Ops jobs that gets hired each year.
There are hundreds and thousands of people elected partners in the various consulting firms each time.
Is there a world where you do this, and doesn’t work out, you return to consulting. Similarly, if you turn this down now, what is the likelihood of a role like this become available to you down the road?
PE ops roles come up pretty frequently fwiw. If you get considered for one you will get considered for others.
My data points are me and a few friends but there have to be more than 100 openings per year. I've personally interviewed for three in the last year or so (similar ~400-600k + carry comp). I dropped out of the process at all of them. I think pe ops just isn't for me. I can also think of 4 people off the top of my head that took pe ops roles in the last year.
I would say that consideration for these roles tends to be referral driven, in my limited experience, so it helps if you are the first name someone thinks of for your expertise.
I agree there are a lot of ops out there. I think it's really valuable when you are happy at your firm - I know someone who recently left a job they liked and were attracted to the offer at the new place and ended up being miserable. If you think you have a chance at being partner anytime soon, I would stay where you're at and reevaluate in a year/year and a half.
I don't think you would be crazy at all to turn it down. There will be other PE roles in the future if you need one. It seems like you need to be at your firm for the next couple of years to see how things play out there first.
I think it's worth giving your company a bit of time and see how the promotion stuff shapes out. if you like where you work, and are happy - honestly, that's a pretty hard thing to find. PE jobs come and go, so you'll always find something to move to when the time comes