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I think they are two different things which both are and will be needed. The way this will finally end or at least slow down is once we have herd immunity. The reason why we must maintain distance and not rush to it is to flatten the curve as you’ve probably heard a million times. This is to not overwhelm hospitals. If we had unlimited hospital beds, ventilators, etc. then absolutely we would want to go out as much as possible and be OK with people getting infected to get to the point where we have herd immunity.

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OP: the basic mechanics of it, as I understand it, are:
You need to immunity to things otherwise they infect loads of people.
You can (we think/hope) get immune by getting and recovering from the disease.
Or you can be vaccinated but that will only be available in at least 12 months.

So, if you lock down everyone and the disease does not spread then you have no immunity. So as soon as everyone goes outside again, it may just start spreading again (you cannot totally eradicate it or you may get it form abroad).

The only mitigating factor is that as testing ramps up we might be able to let people out again and hope that we can detect and shut down mini-outbreaks in certain areas. There is also this ‘antibody test’ which will show how many people have already had it. This is the big unknown. It might be better than we think if the virus has been with us for ages but nobody noticed.

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That puts too much risk on healthcare capacity and supplies imo

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So do we get through this initial surge and then it sort of permeates through the population so we don’t have annual breakouts? Like COVID-19 immunity is just a thing we build up in our system? I wish I knew more about the actual science behind it other than “it’s very contagious”.

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