Is anyone else concerned about the direction the automotive world is heading in, and the overall bigger impact to society when no one can afford to own/have a car? I feel like there’s a perfect storm brewing and with the help of Covid and chip shortages and senseless forced adoption of EVs, in a few years common ppl won’t be able to afford a car and even those in upper income classes will be hard pressed. And when people can’t travel freely on their own, that will have downstream FX on society

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I mean, without cars how else are a lot of people going to get around?

We've got maybe 5 cities in this country that you can comfortably go without a car. Until public transit changes people are going to keep shelling out for a car. They'll just take out bigger and longer loans along the way

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“Without cars how else are a lot of people going to get around?” Is almost the thesis of this post. When they all get priced out of being able to afford a car, whether that be to stupid taxes on ICE vehicles and bans on ICE, while costs of all cars continue to increase, which is even more damaging to EV vehicles which are already so much more expensive than ICE cars that you’d have to drive them for nearly a decade to break even on your “savings”, what are people going to do? What are these people going to do when the private ownership model gets destroyed due to terrible laws and taxes?

Repos are already skyrocketing as we speak bc people can’t afford their monthly payments, and when they have to pick between putting fuel in the car/food on the table (both of which are getting more expensive) VS paying their monthly payment (which is averaging above $700/month), they’re gonna choose the former. So what happens when no one has private ownership of a car? We’re getting closer and closer to “you’ll own nothing and be happy” dystopia

On the enthusiast, it all comes back to demand and market size. People don’t buy many enthusiast type cars, it’s just reality. Mazda wouldn’t have made the ND mX5 without Fiat. Toyota partners on supra and 86. As long as enthusiasts buy cars, OEMs will continue catering to that segment. If you want more options though, we all just need to buy more cars.

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When they are priced more accordingly with average salaries I’ll buy 2 just to help out

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As a driving enthusiast.

I’m very discouraged by government regulations. They are literally KILLING CARS. Performance cars make up what, 2% of cars in the road, you can’t let us have our fun??

Climate change just seems like another $$/power grab by politicians.

I’m very discouraged that my son will likely never get to buy an ICE car like a Porsche or something, so I’ll have to save mine.

I’m also very discouraged that by the time I’m making serious $$ and can afford GT Porsches and Ferraris, they’ll have batteries powering them 🥺🥺 and the SOUL RIPPED OUT.

Also - I own a Tesla and we almost ran out of charge middle of nowhere last week, made it home by 1 mile. So EVs lose practically wise. They are also NOT FUN to drive.

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For one I think it’s hilarious how we don’t have enough chips to support normal production of ICE cars, not to mention plenty of normal people, especially outside of the US, struggle to afford a normal ICE car, and yet these geniuses running governments are writing terrible laws for forced adoption of EVs, which are even more expensive and require SIGNIFICANTLY more chips.

Then you have the whole rebranding from car company to mobility company, take Ford for example. It’s like they know no one will be able to afford a car anymore so they’re focusing on being a “mobility” company. Which like if you want to invent wormhole travel where I can go from NY to UK in half a second, sure I’m all for that kind of mobility. But realistically I think it’s moving to this economic model where there is no more private ownership of cars and you have to pay $20 every time you want to go to the grocery store (and $20 back), which the whole shared model creates a whole load of issues (not for everyone, but for a vast majority of people around the world esp in remote areas) which could be an essay itself.

And on top of all of that, even pre-Covid MSRPs were getting out of hand. And sure you can blame some of that on inflation, even pre-Covid, but a lot of that cost again comes down to stupid laws/requirements which make the cars cost more than they should, and the consumer is the one who has to eat the costs of all these new short-sighted laws.

I think we have a lot of short sighted, or just plain stupid politicians around the world, making laws which they do not understand the consequences of, in the name of “saving the environment” which will look good in the polls, but will ultimately do very little while China continues to be a top polluter of the planet.

And all these price costs led OEMs to discover they could have been charging more money this whole time and people still would buy their cars, so now they’re increasing the MSRPs even more, bc if a consumer is going to pay $20k dealer markup, that’s $10-15k the OEM is potentially missing out on. And I don’t think we would have gotten to this point to begin with if it wasn’t for all the terrible laws that got us here.

And that’s before even getting into the death of the automotive enthusiast car. So far this has just been about the ability for a normal family to privately own a car, but we really need an automotive enthusiast group to start lobbying on our behalf.

And to that point, is there anything politically we can do to stop the down fall of the private, enthusiast car ownership? Groups to support, campaigns to run, anything? I’m really worried this thing we all love will be gone, or cost preventative, to get within the next 1-2 decades

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OP - I have worked for and with OEMs for over 15 years. If you spend 10 mins reading any OEMs 10K statement, you'll understand where the problem lies. OEMs in the US sell vehicles wholesale, so they are not making much of a margin. So the price increase on MSRP alone over time has matched inflation. On top of this, OEMs have packed in more and more content at more efficient costs. Net net you are getting more for less.

On the other hand there are dealers marking up over MSRP and taking advantage of the current supply crunch. There are dealerships in this country that have more profits than some OEMs. And regulations are at state level. Franchise laws in this country make it extremely difficult to bypass dealers with a direct to consumer model which Tesla and other EV upstarts are trying to disrupt.

If you as an individual really want to make a dent, a) push your local lawmakers to allow you to purchase direct b) where the option is available, buy direct. This will save you 5-15% depending on where you live.

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Thanks for the insight P1

I too am concerned, but more about the nine million people who die annually from ICE pollution.

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I’m with you 100% and one of many reasons I hate covid because it made this industry change in the wrong ways. If anything the industry was going in the right direction (e.g. Toyota started to introduce more enthusiast cars). But covid just made prices for these unaffordable and will be so for our younger buyers. 500 units for the Toyota Supra manual? Good luck getting one or with a 20k premium. Unless EV charges through alternative energy resources like solar, people don’t realize having 100% electric is actually worse for the environment. But most people arent car enthusiasts let alone knowledgable about cars so I think EV will boom for a while and be the standard. I agree, hybrids were good enough with a mixture of some high performance cars. The worst part is I don’t simply understand EV car enthusiasts - Hyundai Ionic or Tesla Model Y, i literally dont feel the difference.

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Disagree.
1. A lot of the inflation is that people want nicer cars. Look at a 90s Mercedes E class vs a modern compact. The compact today is nicer, safer, more comfortable, more reliable, same general size, and cheaper, even if you don’t adjust for inflation. There is lots more stuff in cars, which people want, and they’re paying for it.
2. Competition will push prices down. Bolt just had a major price cut, Fisker will be very value oriented, but the biggest impact will be from the Chinese, maybe Vinfast too (they’ll be in the USA soon).
3. For many people, it doesn’t make sense to own a car, say if you drive under 5,000 miles per year. New business models could solve for this.
4. The Maverick has proved that segment is fire. $20k for that much stuff is a steal. Other OEMs will add further competition.
5. Supply chain issues will get worked out over the next year. As interest rates rise, demand will drop for new cars.

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SC1, easy to get a Maverick at MSRP if you order it and wait 6 months like I did!

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Chip deluge is already being forecasted. Soo there will be new car deluge and discounting to follow in a few months. Used car market unfortunately will likely remain hot for a few years until the new cars trickle down

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I thought this post was gonna go more in the direction of investing in robust public transportation systems lol

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What D2 said but also America is too large for public transportation. Intracity transport, yeah I agree it would be great to have better public transportation, would save a bunch of congestion and parking. Denver has a great little free bus route and I was a huge fan of that. But I also just came from a remote Airbnb in the middle of Vermont back to southern NY and no way am I interested in making that family trip on public transportation. But within a big city/suburb-city, I’m all for expanding and improving that

Cant afford a car? Sure supply is down, but car prices went up well before chip/parts shortages. Peope have had extra income to bid up prices which means people have an increased ability to overpay for a car. We all just buy nicer luxury cars as a norm. There are still many cheap cars around the world without automatic windows, Carplay, rear cameras, etc.

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EVs are much cheaper than ICE, from a TCO perspective.

Also PLEASE let me know what we can do as private citizens to influence these policies/politics, I am seriously asking

Buy what you like. There’s a reason fewer than 3% of vehicles are sold with a stick - no one buys them.

Which laws would you remove, which make cars cost more than they should? Safety, emissions?
It would help if countries could align their regulations, but regulations can actually make safety equipment much cheaper. Take ESP, or backup cameras, they were both typically $500+ options (ESP could be much more). Now that they’re mandated, consumers pay a tiny fraction because the volume.

I agree on the nannies. Lane keep and adaptive cruise encourage driver complacency. But FCW with auto brake has been shown to reduce accidents significantly, which can also lower insurance costs.

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I thinks ICE cars will be here during our life, however owning or maintaining them with be very expensive. Gas prices will keep rising for one and cities and suburbs are going to go low emission or electric vehicle zones with hefty fees to get in and out with ICE cars. On top of that congestion charge and bike only roads is going to be a thing in major North American cities. Look at London for instance, daily congestion charge already deters people from buying cars there and more and more people are opting for electric and hybrids

I don’t think anyone has banned ICE cars just yet. Any bans are still a long way away. By the time the bans actually come, most everyday commuters would have shifted to EVs. By then car makers will also have figured out how to make more sporty EVs for the niche that values it

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