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Deloitte’s trend is to make less Principals but more Managing Directors, with a potential path from MD to P. People still make P directly from SM, just not in as many numbers as previously. I believe this is partially because we are trending towards doing more acquisitions for growth.
I don’t have a frame of reference to compare to other firms. No matter where you are though, being qualified and “ready” to be a Principal, along with having the necessary network support, is going to be a much bigger factor. If you are qualified on every aspect they look for (no small task), have good network support, and have demonstrated that you would make the pie bigger than the slice you would be taking, most firms would want you to be a Principal.
I think Big 4 are more likely to park people at Senior Manager for a long time. At our firm you’re out-counseled typically if you don’t advance within a certain timeframe. Not sure on the direct answer to your question.
We don’t strictly enforce Up or Out, so I would assume the chances here are higher. The actual proportion that choose to pursue it is a different question.