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His model was still better than the others. Everyone was wrong
Last week he was getting flak for not giving HRC a higher probability of winning. He was wrong, but less wrong than most others
If you listen to their podcast like I do, they were the only people who I heard saying "Guys this is legit. You must go vote. Trump can absolutely actually win this" whereas everyone else just shrugged it off and assumed it'd be fine.
He'll play it off as his model simply reflecting the polls. He's a liberal hack, regardless.
It's hard to predict a rigged election
Sorry that should be Hillary with 90 and 99
Guys, 65% probability is slightly better than a coin toss. That the 35% won out doesn't make him "wrong. He caveated his projections throughout with explanations about undecided voters and other pieces of data that couldn't be captured.
So did everyone else
@ACN, true. And while many missed the 'Signal in the Noise', if you will, I think many people won't cut him that slack.
Lol people on FB were giving him shit the night before the election because he gave trump 30% chances to win. Other modelers were giving him 90% and others >99%
Yes, his model was better than the others. And polls did end up within the normal margin of error...
He was off because of the silent majority. People who were polled did not answer honestly. It is what it is.
I'm done with him. Not because he got it wrong, everyone did. But he manually manipulated his models, which is a giant no-no in my book. If you followed his live blog, he started making states too close to call once they showed Trump had a higher chance of winning. Your model works and accurately takes into account turnout and remaining vote share, let it do its thing, don't manipulate it when you don't like results. Additionally, they had a really grating post yesterday "We didn't go 51 for 51 this time" really Nate?