Israel vaccinated 60% of its population and now has ~100 cases a day.

Anyone else think we’re much, much closer to herd immunity than the news outlets seem to suggest?

I wish we would just appreciate how well it’s going rather than shame every hesitant / antivaxxer out there.

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Yes I agree with you and I think it could be achieved once 60% of the population is vaccinated. A lot of the calculations don’t factor in that covid cases were undercounted and I’m sure that plays into a portion of herd immunity

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I haven't modeled it out, but I don't think we're on pace to get one does into 60% of the population. Even if we assume 60% of one dose is equal to 60% of two doses, we have to get to that number first.

I appreciate the optimism OP but forgive us for not feeling like it's 'going well' with 50% more cases than the next closest country in the world & 10x more dead than initially predicted.

We’re the 4th largest country by population.

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...no? The data is pretty clear, this is a well understood math problem, and given the reproduction number of COVID we are well below the threshold required for herd immunity. Miles away. Nowhere close.

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You’re right, D2. There is definitely overlap. I’ve done some more research and it looks like Oliver Wyman is modeling that we hit herd immunity in mid -May in much of the Northeast.

So, long story short, other people are thinking of this too and I’m quite happier

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Vaccinate or stay in quarantine. No middle ground. If health conditions keep someone from getting the vaccine then they do not need to be going out to risk it. 70 % to 80% before unvaccinated people can leave quarantine. Sorry if this is harsh but better than another lock down.

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We won’t have another lockdown regardless, it’s not politically feasible. Mission accomplished is the only direction this will be allowed to trend.

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Some news articles (i.e., WSJ) have suggested the same. The issue is we don’t have a great understanding for the true scope of recovered cases given how many asymptomatic, nor how long and effective natural antibodies are. That being said, there’s probably a greater portion of “immune” individuals than just vaccination rates would suggest

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Dunno, the Ebola virus also seems pretty bad.

Herd immunity is usually achieved around 70%

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That's very likely. But we need to take into account different variants now as well as re infections.

TBH have seen a good amount of experts believing herd immunity is no longer achievable in the US. As another commenter mentioned, those w/out vax in Israel we’re still largely quarantining, and less variant spread there than in the US

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By the logic, the USA should stop vaccinating and ship all their shots to India. Stopping accelerated spread in India would remove more dice from the game than trying to slow down a 0.9 R0 in the USA.

...and what % is America at? Nowhere close to 60. So what argument are you trying to make?

Do you have a link? I wasn’t aware of this - thought it was under discussion but Korea and Israel had both shown that one shot was extremely effective.

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There’s a difference between ‘think’ and ‘hope.’ 50k new cases a day and ~1k deaths isn’t great. If we were that close to herd immunity, those numbers (esp new infections) would be better. And that’s just the US. Overseas developments much more troubling.

They are getting better quickly. We are not losing 1k people per day and hospitalizations are dropped very quickly.

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