{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "It seems a lot of industries are struggling with labor shortage, Have most people taken jobs in a different industry or there are people available but not applying for these positions? Given that now the government pandemic benefits are done, what's going on exactly? \n", "post_id": "614d36da3ec87300238f3125", "reply_count": 15, "vote_count": 2, "bowl_id": "552d1d24dc1c586b09d2d051", "bowl_name": "Consulting" }

It seems a lot of industries are struggling with labor shortage, Have most people taken jobs in a different industry or there are people available but not applying for these positions? Given that now the government pandemic benefits are done, what's going on exactly?

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Underrated factor: A ton of people retired early during Covid so there literally aren’t enough people to fill many of these roles

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I’m personally just taking a break. Money isn’t a concern.

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Very large number of americans live paycheck to paycheck and are not fortunate as people in this consulting bowl. We are a very small number in the overall picture. So money would be a concern for large number of people wanting to take a break

Some people are simply choosing to not have a job while they look for something else. In this scenario people will realize after a few months that there aren’t enough roles for the jobs they like for everyone and will end up going back to their old jobs. Some people are leaving low paying jobs that require you to be there in person (I.e retail) to one’s that are actually paying more or the same but you can do virtually (I.e call centers). In this scenario because a lot of these industries with remote jobs are growing really well some industries that require employees to be in-person will suffer a permanent decline in labor availability.

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You should read some of the econ literature about the cost of matching in employment search. We had a ton to people cruising along, employed and not really looking for something new and then tens of millions were laid off. For the most part, they aren't going back to literally the same job, sometimes because they've made the decision that their old job doesn't make sense. So they need to find a new job and just like everyone on the consulting exits bowl, they want to find the best job they can get, given their skills. And just like the consulting exits bowl, that can easily take 3-6m from when you start looking. All those are true on the flip side for employers as well. It is part of the reason many other companies subsidized employers to retain employees rather than subsidize unemployment. You don't have to go through the matching process to restart the economy. Heck, we did it with airlines. There are also whole industries where the value prop fundamentally changed and now they are having a hard time hiring. Like sever at a restaurant used to provide decent tips/wages for low skill workers, now it is more of a hassle, less reliable, and riskier but the pay isn't much higher. Lots of people are just deciding that job isn't worth the pay offered anymore.

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I saw an article that 1/3 of the hospitality industry workforce left permanently. Hospitality industry across the country and beyond was in labor shortage prior to the pandemic as well.

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Its a multi faceted issue that in no way can be naively reduced and explain its bc of thr government checks. First, it’s worth remembering we have ~680,000 less people who passed away from Covid, many of whom were actually still in the workforce. -There are also more jobs available than typical years, which further impacts the ‘supply and demand’. -A lot of people available for employment don’t have the skillset required for the abundance of jobs -In many industries, they have demand to produce and ship product at faster rates, thus requiring a higher than usual workforce to support -People wanted a break from the cycle of poverty (those people who we demand they go back to work for the same $ or less they get from the gov by staying home. The problem is with our expectations, not with them).

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This is the most consulting thing ever. Tries to be elaborate and pointed with bulleted items so on the surface seems legit yet the points are terrible and incorrect lol

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It is also possible that with 680,000 people dead there is both the direct loss in labor and the knock on effect on families. Maybe your older parent died and now you have no childcare so can’t go back to your min wage job? Maybe after you recovered from Covid you realize you need a job with benefits and being a waiter just doesn’t offer that?

I thought the actual net total deaths of all causes wasn’t this drastic though. Plus, majority of the deaths would be post retirement. So the trickle-down you’re talking about might account for a portion, but probably not hugely impactful overall.

We also have less immigrants to fill low wage positions due to tightened borders.

Travel, hospitality, leisure, and some health sectors are having a really hard time re-staffing (try calling an airline’s customer service line to make a flight change if you’re not an elite-level customer; the wait times are horrifying). They were doing better until the delta variant came along and now they’re back in the toilet. People don’t want to work these lower-paid jobs if it means they’re putting themselves and their families at risk, and the Karens & Chads with their anti-mask/anti-vax BS make it even less pleasant.

I wonder this too. I know a lot of women/mothers have left the workforce long term. School during the pandemic has added stresses, particularly for mothers, plus I think a lot of working women became mothers for the first time and left. Otherwise though, I’ve been wondering this. Are there any industries seeing an influx right now? If more people don’t have jobs and there’s no more pandemic assistance, why is leisure travel booming? Where did everyone go and how are they all affording things given the price of everything is up right now?

Most people DO have jobs (unemployment rate in August was down to 5.2% in August). Leisure travel isn’t really booming - there’s some pent-up demand for sure, but hotel occupancy rates are still down and airlines haven’t rebuilt their schedules back to pre-pandemic levels except on some routes that are heavily leisure-dependent…and ticket prices for those routes are pretty reasonable. Prices for routes typically supported by business travelers are high, but that’s because there are fewer flights and the supply/demand equation is out of balance. People who have kept their jobs through the pandemic and weren’t spending for the past 18 months have some disposable income to travel, and probably are, but I don’t think people who are unemployed and struggling are headed to Disney World any time soon.

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