It seems like in the past week I've talked to about 50 people about the upcoming economic recession. Everyone is 100% convinced it's right around the corner.

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Increased leverage in the corporate sector. A majority of companies have an unsustainable debt load at higher interest rates, more than half are utilizing 2/3’s of EBITDA for interest payments. These interest payments will only increase due to floating rates or refi’s. FED will continue hiking as wage growth continues to rise - it is running below normal (productivity + inflation). Stronger dollar is also headwind for corporates given the portion of revenues generated abroad. Consumers look good this cycle

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You get hit by the bus you didn’t see coming

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Economic cycle is in a good place. Long term economic fundamentals are in a bad place

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I think the problem is that there are a bunch of different ideas as to what the main factor in the recession will be. Student debt? Subprime auto loans? Resurgence of subprime mortgages? I’ll be more concerned when the opinions converge and target a specific cause

I don’t believe in a GDP driven recession but in An ‘EPS recession’ in the next couple of years, where combined earning of S&P companies shrink

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