It’s official that Elon Musk will buy twitter for 54,20$ a share. The price now is 50$. Why are people not buying it and push the price to 54,20? What am I missing?

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It's pricing in the time value of money, risk of the acquisition being blocked, risk of financing falling through, risk of Elon being Elon

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Didn’t they freeze trading? Not sure

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No one has communicated how the value of Twitter will increase as a result of Musk. No growth on the horizon, no price increase.

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Given his history of fluctuating stock prices with well, Twitter, idk that I’d want to ride Twitter until they go private.

Everyone is missing a HUGE detail. Takeovers or any M&A deal takes time. The larger the deal the bigger hoops you must jump through to get things approved too. For all we know, regulators could say no and the deal falls through. That 4% ish is the risk premium investors feel is justified for this procedure. Even if things go well, it could be a while for them to finalize the deal. that 4% doesn’t sound really enticing if the deal takes a year when you could get better returns elsewhere.

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Never said that; conversely I actually thanked SC1 for the insight. I only pointed out that it’s possible to not know this crucial part of M&A while being in consulting. You’re the one that then followed up with “I’d argue that as a Strategy Manger…this should be in your wheelhouse” (I.e., you should know this) while not having any clue about what I do beyond my title 🫡

Hope you didnt buy

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I also wish I didn’t buy

He's overpaying

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PM1 by what metric?

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The risk that the deal doesn't go through. The market believes there is only a ~75% chance Musk actually fulfills his promise and buys twitter.

Risk Arbitrage can explain some of this if you want a piece of the puzzle.

Lol RIP OP

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