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How much is the average yearly hike in amex?
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Thoughts on C3.AI?
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VSLR is going to print tomorrow. 11c 4/17.
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Dan niles has some good plays
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Rate hikes aren’t in response to market movements. Markets will adjust to new rates as money flows around into different instruments. Now, if the rate hikers create a severe liquidity issues resulting into sudden drop in economic activity, that may be a trigger. As long as inflation remains this high, Fed will continue on the path of increasing rates.
The other option to control inflation is to sell bonds and suck liquidity out of economy which is also part of Fed’s plan. Both will work together to achieve inflation objectives.
Correct they will like do 25bps and if the need to QT (we bonds) warrants they will do that. But I doubt it. Powell won't spook too much. He said they haven't looked much into QT yet. Will primarily rely on rates for the time being as economic data comes in.
Can't be too Hawkish either bc unemployment numbers are supposed to be bad coming Friday.
I saw an article yesterday saying that bank of America is expecting 7 increases this year from the FED. If you (or anyone else) know a better way of adjusting for inflation, PLEASE get a job at the FED. I'm sick of seeing the gloom and doom news articles pre blaming this decision for a hypothetical future recession.
The banks have puts on the market
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The Fed certainly could do that, but the argument could be made that the last 3 weeks of selling was pricing in the March rate hike. So, assuming the Fed doesn't go off the rails, when they actually raise the rates in March it shouldn't spell another correction. But, if the markets continue to taper tantrum and drop another 20%, then the Fed would likely cool the engines and be accomodative.
Too early to tell at this point, but its gonna be volatile most likely for the next few weeks.
Also if really interested in inflation give this guy a follow on twitter @inflation_guy
Fed’s focus is on inflation right now, not asset price
I could be wrong but Dems won’t let Market fall too much before midterm elections
I already lost 100k from my retirement funds. Quickly loosing my gains from the past several years.
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The Fed has been very transparent with their intentions this go around in effort to prevent knee jerk market reactions. They signaled their intent to begin tapering balance sheet expansion, opposed to announcing it. Then they commenced with their plan. Albeit, they increased the rate at which they reduced asset / bond purchases due to increased inflation numbers.
Market participants, including financial institutions, know that after the Fed stops expanding the balance sheet, that rate hikes will follow (in March). While the Fed may pony up 50bps to start the year or 25bps followed by 50bps, they have not, and will not hike rates 7 times next year. Those sort of shenanigans would have severely adverse consequences on the market, stress variable rate debt, potentially cause the housing bubble to burst, and strangle GDP.
That being said, if inflation were to hit 10% (which I don’t foresee), the Fed may get aggressive at the risk of all that I mentioned above.
Fun fact, banks are routinely off in prediciting rates