Just in case - If we face a strong recession, how will it affect our jobs at Big4? Which positions will be the most vulnerable - Managers and above or SC and below?

Senior staff and managers are the most productive and profitable individuals in most firms. Analysts are cheaper and needed for continuity in talent pipeline. Senior mgmt are the expensive players that become redundant if there isn’t work to be sold.

Practices at risk are more dependent on idiosyncratic health of individual industries. Restructuring and cost management may expand, capital projects may shrink, etc.

When some firms did layoffs in 2020 at the beginning of COVID, some groups got hit fairly hard at all levels, and some groups hired aggressively.

I think corporate will be fine in the medium term. Hopefully this is a storm in a tea cup. The dynamics now are quite different to 2007-08, this time we have supply chain delays and a crypto / tech bubble. Unfortunately the losers will be mom and pop crypto and Tesla investors, rather than big banks, insurers and big tech. So, consultants will likely keep winning work with our clients :)

Last in first out

My opinion is that if the industry freezes hiring as Facebook is doing and others will follow.
Consultants can fill the gap, I expect FB needing to fill positions with consultants. Projects they could drive on their own will be understaffed and under managed, let’s hire the consultants to help.

Experienced senior associates least vulnerable since they are the cash cow.

Fat gets cut. People that do the actual work, and deliver stuff are retained.

If you’re chargeable, chances are strong you won’t get fired. If you’re on the bench for an extended period of time or your chargeability sucks, expect to be at risk. This is how it worked in 2008/2009.

I think, all those people who oversold their capabilities to walk across the street for 30% more during the great resignation, best build some good relationships and get on some gigs where they can demonstrate their value. Otherwise, that massive price tag you got (that maybe you didn’t deserve ) is now going to become a target

What generally happens is that consultant, senior consultant and manager levels are safest.

In 2008 analyst and senior manager levels got hit hard as did senior level non-equity individuals.

When is the recession starting again?

Before or after lunch (after 4th of July weekend) ?

If something were to happen, we would generally start at the top - biggest bang for the buck if you’ll will.

Lower levels are usually impacted in very specific areas where the works has died off significantly and opportunity to re-align is minimal.

And of course performance management gets tougher across the board.

Most likely LIFO

It might be more sector based as well. Ie the groups that are most profitable retain more people, and the groups that are less profitable get cuts first

Nothing will happen as I walk with Jesus and he’ll provide for me.

Big 4 do fire and hire more quickly than the smaller consulting shops.

For consulting, review cycles will be used to accelerate out-counciling. Folks who have gotten by because everyone has been busy will be let go swiftly. Because the industry has been white hot, all firms have people on the books now who are below their normal standards. It will be pretty easy to downsize.

Got 5 years before a serious recession (depression). Get yourself in a player-coach role and stick to it. Learn for the next 5 years, become a jack. And be sure to invest your every red cent in as many 0 beta assets as possible (dragon portfolio is what I’m generally doing), including your own ability to generate cash flow with land, sustainable

Highly compensated PMDs that are underperforming and/ or close to retirement will be the first to go and will be offered a package. The next group will be consistently poor performing staff at all levels (those on PIPs) as well as folks will low utilization

Downturns in consulting can be opportunities, we trim the fat but need to keep going so if you keep your head down and perform there is plenty of room to move up.

Imo all Public/federal sector are safe (assuming that you’re billable and not a dud)
Gov will continue to have a need/funding

Commercial will probably get hit hardest

Only the best performers will survive no matter the level. I joined KPMG in 2009 and saw the purge, orly thé best performers remained.

At this point we have so many talentlink subcontractors I think it would be easy to cut significantly without even touching staff