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Just in case - If we face a strong recession, how will it affect our jobs at Big4? Which positions will be the most vulnerable - Managers and above or SC and below?

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Senior staff and managers are the most productive and profitable individuals in most firms. Analysts are cheaper and needed for continuity in talent pipeline. Senior mgmt are the expensive players that become redundant if there isn’t work to be sold.

Practices at risk are more dependent on idiosyncratic health of individual industries. Restructuring and cost management may expand, capital projects may shrink, etc.

When some firms did layoffs in 2020 at the beginning of COVID, some groups got hit fairly hard at all levels, and some groups hired aggressively.

likesmarthelpfulfunny

General non-revenue generating IT projects gets cut first. Think about ERP and HR Implementation

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I think corporate will be fine in the medium term. Hopefully this is a storm in a tea cup. The dynamics now are quite different to 2007-08, this time we have supply chain delays and a crypto / tech bubble. Unfortunately the losers will be mom and pop crypto and Tesla investors, rather than big banks, insurers and big tech. So, consultants will likely keep winning work with our clients :)

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Bc Tesla is topped out and will hit $400 and below

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Feeling pretty good we didn’t fully give in to all the rapid wage increases. Will help us hold on to people if things get ugly.

likefunnysmart

Yeah D will layoff anyone without a 2nd thought. From 2019-2020 they had layoffs every year.

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Last in first out

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I’m not even an accountant and see your joke AC1 👍

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My opinion is that if the industry freezes hiring as Facebook is doing and others will follow.
Consultants can fill the gap, I expect FB needing to fill positions with consultants. Projects they could drive on their own will be understaffed and under managed, let’s hire the consultants to help.

likefunnysmart

Who needs level 6 Engineer Leads when you can just get a kid from Wharton to do the same job? ez

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Experienced senior associates least vulnerable since they are the cash cow.

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Fat gets cut. People that do the actual work, and deliver stuff are retained.

likefunnysmart

Lol I got cut and now they’re asking me to come back with a $40k raise

likefunnyhelpful

If you’re chargeable, chances are strong you won’t get fired. If you’re on the bench for an extended period of time or your chargeability sucks, expect to be at risk. This is how it worked in 2008/2009.

likehelpful

Back then in 2001 .com bust, even billable resources were cut in CAPGEMINI (Ernst & young)

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I think, all those people who oversold their capabilities to walk across the street for 30% more during the great resignation, best build some good relationships and get on some gigs where they can demonstrate their value. Otherwise, that massive price tag you got (that maybe you didn’t deserve ) is now going to become a target

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I agree, the ratio of your pay v/s value determines your continuity.

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What generally happens is that consultant, senior consultant and manager levels are safest.

In 2008 analyst and senior manager levels got hit hard as did senior level non-equity individuals.

likehelpful

When is the recession starting again?

Before or after lunch (after 4th of July weekend) ?

likefunny

Once you get a confirmed start date for the recession, please post. We'd all like to know.

likefunny

If something were to happen, we would generally start at the top - biggest bang for the buck if you’ll will.

Lower levels are usually impacted in very specific areas where the works has died off significantly and opportunity to re-align is minimal.

And of course performance management gets tougher across the board.

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Most likely LIFO

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Nah, will be based on productivity and sales..

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It might be more sector based as well. Ie the groups that are most profitable retain more people, and the groups that are less profitable get cuts first

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Nothing will happen as I walk with Jesus and he’ll provide for me.

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Big 4 do fire and hire more quickly than the smaller consulting shops.

For consulting, review cycles will be used to accelerate out-counciling. Folks who have gotten by because everyone has been busy will be let go swiftly. Because the industry has been white hot, all firms have people on the books now who are below their normal standards. It will be pretty easy to downsize.

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Got 5 years before a serious recession (depression). Get yourself in a player-coach role and stick to it. Learn for the next 5 years, become a jack. And be sure to invest your every red cent in as many 0 beta assets as possible (dragon portfolio is what I’m generally doing), including your own ability to generate cash flow with land, sustainable

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Lions and tigers and bear oh my

likefunny

Highly compensated PMDs that are underperforming and/ or close to retirement will be the first to go and will be offered a package. The next group will be consistently poor performing staff at all levels (those on PIPs) as well as folks will low utilization

Downturns in consulting can be opportunities, we trim the fat but need to keep going so if you keep your head down and perform there is plenty of room to move up.

likehelpful

Imo all Public/federal sector are safe (assuming that you’re billable and not a dud)
Gov will continue to have a need/funding

Commercial will probably get hit hardest

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I’ve been saying this! That’s why I didn’t move forward with JP Morgan

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Only the best performers will survive no matter the level. I joined KPMG in 2009 and saw the purge, orly thé best performers remained.

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At this point we have so many talentlink subcontractors I think it would be easy to cut significantly without even touching staff

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likeuplifting

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