Not a troll post. Why did Fox News call ARizona so early when not even CNN did? It’s hard to imagine the media of Trump calling something in favor of Biden when no one else did. Really bizarre.

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It's the same math but different assumptions feeding the models. A lot of the remaining ballots were drop offs (which fox classified as mail-in), which lean heavy biden in most parts of the country. A more granular dive into the data would lead to the conclusion that a lot of these were ballot drop-off and later-mail-in ballots which historically lean R in the state. AZ has a much better infrastructure for these types of ballots than in other places because they've been doing em for a while. The nerds at fox just didn't dive deep enough into the granularity of the data to support their underlying assumptions.

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I agree that it still leans biden. But the argument is that the degree of uncertainty is large enough to take back the call. I think it's irrefutable that the call was made too early because the underlying assumptions have been disproven from when they made the call with like 60-70% of vote in. The fox decision desk was saying at the time of the call that trump would get like 47% of those remaining votes at best. Obviously, reality is disproving that assumption and raising the degree of uncertainty.

The Fox Decision Desk acts independently of Fox News / Opinion. The head of it (Arnon Mishkin) is quite respected in the industry (and actually a Democrat) and has stood his ground in previous elections when certain fox personalities didn’t like his calls. Everyone has pretty much the same data but individual model assumptions will vary by organization which leads to different decisions to call a race

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It’s based on internal statistics and probabilities - not bias.

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Fox news journalists and the decision desk is really different from the fox commentators and analysts. There are many legitimate and professional journalists that work at fox (as well as their decision desk). Its similar to how in a newspaper the news side and opinion side are completely different and have different people making decisions to what gets published vs what doesn't. Take WSJ as an example. The news side of WSJ is highly credible and reputable. The opinion side is basically a tabloid

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You didn’t realize the news before 8pm on FOX news is relatively unbiased compared to CNN by miles. They need Carlson and Hannity to retain viewership.

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Yeah I get that but everyone does the same math.

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Statistics and projects are not the ‘same’

I actually really liked the Fox election coverage. I flipped among all the networks and I liked them the most. They were pretty pissed about all the attacks on them re AZ. Moderate here.

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This was published before November 3rd.

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I think it’s hilarious that Fox News called AZ, while CNN, nytimes have held back. Even though, it’s pretty clear it’s going to stay with Biden.

Can someone explain Alaska?

You means state almost as large as the lower 48 with dispersed populous and voting infrastructure with mountainous and rugged terrain?

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Mishkin said they were four standard deviations away from being wrong about the call. He was right.

The result of 4 standard devs was developed with bad assumptions. They assumed far fewer remaining ballots and that trump would get at best 45-50% of the remainder. They may very well be correct that biden will win. But the degree of certainty at the time of the call was crap...it was a garbage in, garbage out model.

For all those hating on Fox - agree it was inappropriate to call as soon as they did from a statistical sense (can debate merit of other reasons), but there is also reason to suspect the next round(s) of ballots will be less favorable for Trump. Overall unlikely that it flips.

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A1 - the relevant information in the tweet (registration of mail in votes received by date) isn’t from Nate Silver...

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