Odds MBAs starting August 2021 will still be online?

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Would be shocked if it’s full remote. Either hybrid or in person

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“Hybrid” is pretty much online. If all social events, clubs, recruiting, etc. are virtual, who really cares if you get to go to a few classes in person?

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I do, meeting people in person makes a big difference and I’m sick of sitting behind a webcam all day.

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80% chance it’s more or less in person

20% chance not

I think the US will be basically fully-vaccinated by then, and variants don’t seem to be causing enough trouble to keep restrictions around, unless you get into the worst instincts of some of the more hysterical experts (e.g., Tom Frieden, Devi Sridhar, most of the UK govt advisors)

I know there’s evidence that the variants with the E484K mutation (e.g., South Africa variant) will be partially vaccine-escape, but so far the non-AZ vaccines are holding up really well in preventing severe disease. Most like the viruses stays around forever and it’s widely circulating but basically harmless in the US by autumn.

The 20% tail risk is from mutations being a bigger issue or ‘the experts’ giving into their most hysterical instincts and keeping restrictions for no good reason (more likely in California than the rest of the country).

Also, this is a US-only view. We’re lucky to have an excellent vaccine rollout and not to be relying on the AstraZeneca vaccine.

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OP, thanks. :) I spend basically all my time reading about Covid so I like to share what I know. It’s a far more interesting subject than anything I’ve encountered at work, ever.

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Our guess is as good as yours dude

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Hybrid most likely

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It’s not as black and white as in person vs remote vs online. Restrictions on social life are always changing (eg. 50 person outdoor gatherings, 10 person indoor gatherings). Unless some variant fucks us fall 2021 should be miles better than now. Probably still no intl travel or massive parties but you’ll at least be able to network and socialize with your peers

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They might be and I hope you’re right. Only time will tell I guess

I don't think schools would back-track from where they are now. Even Wharton is hybrid right now.

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Been following the vaccine rollout very closely with this question in mind. Given it's possibly going to take until EOY to vaccinate 75% of the population, I can see schools taking a conservative approach and keeping a hybrid model for the fall. BUT I think the vaccine should be accessible enough to anyone who wants it by this fall, so it should still be safe to socialize with classmates in person assuming we're all vaccinated.

Agree that international travel is probably going to take longer to come back, but I think it'll likely come back in doses. I can see the UK being ok to travel to by EOY (assuming they iron out the kinks with the AZ vaccine) and Greece is planning to reopen to vaccinated tourists this summer. Can see other EU countries following suit. APAC and LATAM will likely take longer imo.

The 75% threshold is weird because it’s a sort of herd immunity guideline, but I don’t think we’re going to get enough transmission blocking to think in terms of true R<1 forever herd immunity. Much more likely is an endemic virus.

So then what? We want to protect people from severe disease. What percent? Well, probably every adult who wants it. 75% is probably reasonable. I’ll be angry if we keep society locked down for people who voluntarily don’t get vaccinated.

But 75% of adults should come faster than 75% of the whole population, because kids are a whole other issue. 12-16 yo studies are going to happen, and a vaccine for them may or may not be approved. U12 vaccine will probably not be approved. So then what? Under all these scenarios I think we basically need to be prepared for every child to get Covid, which should be fine given its sub-flu IFR at that age, except we’ll probably hear hysteria about long Covid. But what else do we do? Even giving finite vaccines to 12-16 year olds in the US seems like a dreadful use of resources when they could go to, I don’t know, nurses or 90-year-olds in Peru or something.

All this to say, an arbitrary number like 75% gets into weird territory and isn’t that meaningful as we talk endemicity rather than herd immunity. The reality I honestly think is that hospitalization and death metrics will carry the day.

Skeptic on how long its going to take the general public - I do not think the general US public will be back to socializing as normal in the fall. But I DO think top tier MBA programs are going to do whatever they can to try to secure vaccines for their students. So perhaps your class would be vaccinated through student health.

Will schools require proof that a student has taken the vaccine? I’m guessing yes.

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