{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "Put more money into the market. Fed will not raise rates in 3 years. No where we late to put sideline money now. More money will rush into money in the short term 12-36 months", "post_id": "5f6253f70dfe3200226e6c6d", "reply_count": 18, "vote_count": 7, "bowl_id": "5acc42208c6b52001375e11e", "bowl_name": "Option Traders & Investing" }

Put more money into the market. Fed will not raise rates in 3 years. No where we late to put sideline money now. More money will rush into money in the short term 12-36 months

likehelpful
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End of day sell off are meaningless in long term. The stocks that outperformed the market (tech/cloud/software) will continue to grind while other laggards begin to catch up on vaccine hopes. The market has some uncertainty around election but otherwise is under fed control. Money is useless in .01% bank accounts with inflation targets of 2%

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It took the Fed 7 years to raise rates after 2008. I bet it takes a similar amount of time, if not slightly longer, for them to raise rates. The Fed can pull the U.S. economy out of a nosedive, but they are all about the tail risk and after commencing QE in spring 2009, they followed on for 5 years of asset purchases and zero interest rates. Remember, we technically exited the recession after Q1 2009. Fed balance sheet by year end: 2007 - $745 billion in securities 2008 - $1.2 trillion in securities 2009 - $2.01 trillion in securities 2010 - $2.050 trillion in securities* 2011 - $2.561 trillion in securities* 2012 - $2.57 trillion in securities 2013 - $3.57 trillion in securities 2014 - $4.219 trillion in securities 2019 - $3.6 trillion in securities + $178 billion in repo. End of Q2 2020 - $3.89 trillion in securities + $242 billion in repo *2010 & 2011 are average daily amounts via SOMA The Fed is going to keep rates lower for longer than three years and they’re also going to inject more money into the economy (that doesn’t even include their need to help the Treasury facilitate debt auctions as fiscal stimulus will continue at some point). PS: I used to post under ‘Senior Vice President’ but I guess Fishbowl finally picked up my promotion from LinkedIn.

likehelpfulsmart

For all who are reading this, there was a cut off when I copy / pasted the final stats, which created a sizeable typo. The Fed balance sheet, at the end of each respective quarter, reflected the following: End of Q1 2020 - $3.897 trillion in securities + $$242 billion in repo + $0 in loans + $0 in central bank liquidity swaps + $172 billion in other assets. End of Q2 2020 - $6.256 trillion in securities + $0 in repo + $83 billion in loans + $100 billion in central bank liquidity swaps + $400 billion in other assets. In short, the Fed’s balance sheet will continue to grow and three years of ZIRP is on the low end of my expectations. Anyone else playing inflation with a new mortgage? I’m starting to get back into the market to find our next home (SoCal based).

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Getting close to a tradable bounce here. Market leaders taking a nice rest after their 6 month tear. Put together your list of winners and start legging in

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Just posted my list - see the most recent post from a few min ago

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No where *else*

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With all the financial engineering, the question remains: can the Fed put hedge the market forever? If the answer was a clear yes, why would anyone debate the V vs W vs U recovery? I don’t think the question is about whether the Fed can bail out the market. I think it’s about whether the economic reality ever ends up catching up to the market and correcting itself. If people don’t spend, deflation will be the primary risk. No amount of Fed printing is going to pay people’s rent or bills.

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You are right the question is not if but when. The problem is also that we place a large emphasis on bailing out companies instead of the rest of society. We bail out and reward financial engineering time and time again and it continues to back fire and hurt the working and middle class. For example the money given to airlines could have been used to pay off student loan debt. That would provide tons of disposable income that would most likely flow back into the economy.

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Do you really think the distribution of resources this last time around was effective?

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So you are saying another downward crash is not coming?

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🤔

smart

Agree 100% with your analysis and facts. I am legging into much more exposure into equities over the next month and very heavy after the election dust settles. Long term

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Agreed. That is why my plan is to leg into the positions over the next few months.

Beginning of a new bull market!

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