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Did your manager give you a written promise? How would you feel if you passed up the opportunity only to find that the promo didn't go through? Make decisions based on what you know... Not what might happen in the future.
No matter how close you are with your manager and skip manager, asking their advice could backfire on you. They could see it as a hesitancy to grow with the company. I wouldn’t necessarily bring up the other job offer to them unless you signed your paperwork locking you in (you can always change your mind) so they don’t rescind the offer. I would just talk to your manager about the promotion at the end of the year. What can you be doing now to learn and grow that will guarantee that promotion. Even if you don’t get it, you’ll have the skills to go somewhere else.
Sometimes it’s not your manager who gets the final say and numerous people can push back. It isn’t guaranteed till you sign the paperwork.
I'm not a fan of giving notice to accept the counter offer. If you like the team/work and that's more important than the money, stay. Using the offer as leverage may get you a one time bump but it usually ends up biting you in the long run.
I have never received a $20k raise at promotion. Just saying...
I would tell your manager about your offer (say it’s 30k more though ;)) and see if they can at least match and promote you now
I’ve thought about taking it to my manager, but worried it would backfire in the future. It is something to consider though.
I would use the offer as leverage - either now or in the future conversation to say here are some of the opportunities that have been coming my way and I'm really wanting to stay here but am torn.
I am thinking about this. The only thing that worries me is if I do this, I know I have to be prepared to quit if they don’t match my offer.
If money is an active problem for you, then I would base your decision more around culture. If you have a team invested in your growth who is creating a positive work environment - well that’s really hard to find
I think taking a step back on the view may help a bit. Is the company you’re working for promote a positive culture around growth, learning, inclusion? Is it real or is it all talk? If so, then it’s very likely you’ll continue to find good teams in that company. If the company isn’t like that, then the team is unique and may not drive that culture as new people join and others leave.
Is there a reason your current management can't promote you now? If you're a strong performer I'd have a meeting and mention some of your recent work, make your case for deserving the promotion now versus EOY. You might get it, and if you don't the way you're manager responds might help you make a decision.
The company I work for only really does promotions at the end of the year. I know there are exceptions, but for the most part, they only do it once a year.
Is there a casual way to find out how much of a pay raise promotions usually come with in your company?
Levels.fyi is good to understand salary/YOE/leveling.
If money is the primary deciding factor, I have never received a promotion that came with a $20k pay raise even when I changed roles from Data Analyst to Data Scientist within the same company - if that helps with a more personal anecdote. However, if money is not a factor, I would consider the culture, benefits, team, manager and what your priorities are at this point in your career.
You need to ask yourself what is better for you. Being loyal to a company is fine but you always need to look out for yourself. Experience has shown me that if it is not in writing then there is no guarantee. Also look at the growth opportunity. Will you become stagnant in your current position if there for the next 5 years? What is your goal?