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Rising Star
While I hope sanctions have the desired effect, I suspect the scenarios have been gamed out. Russia has support from China and sanctions are not a one way street.
Putin is a lot of terrible things but he hasn’t generally shown himself to be reckless in his 20+ years in power.
NATO was never going to invite or defend Ukraine and acknowledging that perhaps could have averted this. The west has sadly left Ukraine on it’s own.
Rising Star
I disagree, NATO could have taken the steps to admit Ukraine at anytime in recent years but won’t because there was previously a commitment to Russia not to.
It would be considered an escalation which would draw a response from Russia. NATO was never going to defend Ukraine.
Chief
I am not sure that Putin or, in general, russian politics, are at all dictated by stock value. Same for China.
I understand american stock market has strong levers on american politics, but dont think that extends to other more authoritarian countries.
"The stock market is not the economy"
In my mind Ukraine is a pawn in the great game. The bigger question is will China follow and take Taiwan? If that happens, we are all in a very dangerous place.
Rising Star
China does not need to invade Taiwan and trigger all the attendant fallout. Not unless maybe it needed a drastic PR shore up at home, which it doesn’t.
China has declared Taiwan a vassal state; makes most people toe that line, and maintains it could invade if it wanted to. That’s enough.
Rising Star
Hopefully we don’t escalate. I am 99% please let’s stay calm, 1% cowabunga you commie f🤬cks
Anyone thinking Ukraine isn’t even the real goal for Russia? One of the principles in the Art of War is about distracting your enemies so your real motives don’t show. I’m worried about what we DON’T see
China has already been comparing their right to Taiwan with Russia's right to Ukraine. Good money is that they'll do it at the same time - divide and conquer.
Putin wouldn't have attacked if he didn't know he was going to come out fine. It's sad to watch this but that's the reality.
Doubt stock market mean anything to regular Russian people. They already living in terrible conditions. Also, US stock market go up and up and doesn’t mean anything for regular US people either