So from a fundamental standpoint what would cause the crash now? Bank earnings went well and vaccine might be out sooner rather than later. The only thing I’m thinking is a possible re election pullback...

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The market reflecting economic reality after the stimulus/Fed injections wear off. Unemployment rate is still high and there are probably more white collar layoffs coming; a lot of people won’t get their jobs back in time if re opening keeps stalling and they won’t have benefits to lean back on (both unemployment and $600 stipend)

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In Q3 when everyone stops giving a pass to earnings.

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Bank earnings for big banks went ok. Look at PNC Bank’s report. Wells Fargo. The performance of the stock market helped them offset a lot of the bad as I said it would. However, that type of recovery won’t happen this quarter.

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It’s not a bias, it’s based on fundamentals which do matter.

Consumer spending will keep declining. Think about this:

-Most everyone who got their stimulus check already spent that money in Q2.
-most people making more on unemployment likely didn't save all that extra money, they probably spent it either on luxuries or necessities
-as mentioned above, continued white collar layoffs.
-more bankruptcies. Even absent a bunkruptcy, store closures still kicks people out of a job. Closing 200 locations could be another 2,000+ people out of a job.
-not to mention all the people who work at restaurants and bars that have no visitors. They aren't collecting tips.
-people still hesitant to travel/not able to travel to destinations.

The list goes on. The only thing that can counteract this is more stimulus but only that can last so long.

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But ppl love debt.

A new virus 🦠

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5/4 Thread (General):

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