Starting to second guess my international exposure in my 401k mix. It’s about 8-10% right now but it’s such a low performer compared to my US s&p500, US value, and US growth. Should I dump it?

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If I knew the future, I would not be on fishbowl. I have 30% international and don’t second guess it. It goes in cycles. Us has been way better the last 10 or so years. International was better the 10 before that.

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Literally looking at my 401k and thinking the same thing, though we may come to regret this in a downturn.

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Nope. USD has been very strong the last couple months and Europe has been stagnate over COVID fears.

I’m buying more Europe exposure here.

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Looking at a historical 5 year time frame and allocating based on that isn’t the best approach.

Asset allocations need to be framed with future expected returns and correlation to other positions. Large parts of the global economy should have faster growth than the US in the coming decade and offer some reduction in correlations.

If you just looked at trailing returns in Q1 you would have allocated a lot to zero-profit, high growth small caps… and be down 35-50% over the last 9 months.

Cathie Wood can afford to do that with most her positions. I don’t collect management fees, so I need to be a bit more effective in my decision making.

International and US have both taken turns outperforming each other for different periods in the last few decades. Recently, the US has significantly outperformed international for a longer period of time. Some thinks this will persist indefinitely, others think it’s only a matter of time before it flips again and international outperforms US.

Personally, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the period of US outperformance coincides with the rise of big tech in the US.

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