There seems to be quite the debate of when the market will improve. Does anyone have an idea of when we can stop speculating?

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February 30th

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No one can say for sure. But most clients have their scopes finalized by late January. So by early/mid February it’ll be obvious whether there’s a hiring spree going on or not.

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Agency AOR scopes are usually calendar years

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I know it sucks to have job search woes but you don't need to fill the bowl with these posts every other day

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Speculating on when we can stop speculating

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The day you retire.

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Most likely when the sea levels rise a few feet

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That's not how the market works.

Understanding the state of the economy, news and politics will to some extent help with this.

In a recession, certain industries do well (google: countercyclic industries), and it might not be fun, but those brands will want their work to be more distinctive. So, agencies who have those clients will be better able to do work.

Choose to work somewhere where your clients will be fun, and you’ll put work you’re proud of in your book. Alcohol and snack food brands might be more interesting than, say, auto parts brands.

A year ago, crypto and gambling apps seemed like promising projects to take on from clients with a lot of money to spend. Today, not so much. Our industry is very dependent on where money is flowing in the rest of the economy.

Pet care brands did well when people were staying home with their pets in 2020 and had nothing else to spend money on. Hotels didn’t

I’m not saying this is set in stone, but don’t expect agencies who list Meta as one of their biggest clients to make it out of this downturn unscathed

We can speculate as long as we live; there’s no end state for the economy. It’ll ebb and flow, rise and fall. Forever. As for the projected downturn, it’ll certainly last for a while. Probably years, not months. But I could be completely wrong.

2024 ish

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