This data suggests 27K *excess* deaths in the US since the start of 2020.
That’s a very different story from 100K. Perhaps GA and FL weren’t so crazy after all?

likefunny
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Lmao this is so dumb I don’t even know where to start. Do you understand that you can’t compare projections without changes in behavior to projections with changes in behavior?

likesmart

The core of my point is about your faulty logic and complete lack of understanding of causality which your reply and this article does not address.

Given the way people have responded to this post I think we’re done here anyway.

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Perfect timing as the model Trump has been referencing the most just updated to project 135,000 deaths from Covid

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Let’s revisit in let’s say 30 days.

likesmart

This post is added to my increasing number of data points on how BCG's interview process needs to improve bc they let people who can't do proper analysis slip through the cracks.

likesmart

Right, Kemp and DeSantis made the right calls for their states. Most of the country isn’t New York, thank God for federalism

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Halle fucking lujah for federalism indeed

That’s 27k excess deaths on top of the 67k deaths already attributed to Covid.

likesmart

This is not how we taught you to note sources and citations. Pls fix OP.

likesmartfunny

This excess death for US (20.8K btw not 27K) is only through 4/11. Since then we have had on average 2K daily death for 3 weeks, think about that...

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So some traffic and workplace deaths have been avoided. Are you saying you don’t believe 67k Americans have died from the virus?

likesmart

Right, Florida. The state where health officials have prevented medical examiners from reporting covid deaths for the last 12 days. Yes, please, let's use them as the model

likesmart

Can we, like, source our data as a best practice so this can stop happening?

like

which data

like

I think OP is misreading the data behind this article. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/

likesmart

Is this what you’re referring to? WaPo reported 37,100 excess deaths in the US through April 11, which is 13,500 more than those attributed to COVID-19. Sounds like we’re undercounting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/

likesmart

Too early to tell

smart

Without a source I have no idea what data you're referring to. Tried to Google this and the only thing close is data out of England.

like

If that s the same source I read, those 27k excess deaths are on top of the covid ones... and therefore likely covid related...

smart

They weren’t!!

One more thing to consider, the number may go down once we re-classifying all the non covid deaths. (Unsure what the impact is, but a possibility). Nevertheless one is too many, let’s hope the model is wrong and it’ll come out much lower.

On April 11 CNN reported 18,860 covid deaths, the FT data showed 20k excess deaths, which seems on par.

If you can find an equivalent # for up to May and not just multiply by 2, based on... what? What YOU think is likely? For an infectious disease with exponential growth?

Go have a look at UK excess deaths across April, it’s like 3 times the prior year average

like

I clearly messed up the post by not including a link and more clearly stating the logic. Lesson learned - this is why sourcing and wording on slides matter 😂

Regardless, let me try again now.
FT data shows 20K excess deaths in the US since the beginning of the year. The data goes till 4/11 so we are missing roughly 3 weeks worth.
Even if that number doubles in the last 3 weeks, we are still “only” looking at 40K excess deaths.

My main point is that this is significantly less than 100K.
It’s possible that either many of the people who succumbed to Covid would have passed anyway, and/or the lockdown prevents many other deaths (eg road accidents), and/or Covid deaths are being overcounted in certain ways and under in other ways.

This isn’t to say we didn’t need to do a lockdown. Obviously we did. It’s just to say that the total net impact is better than we thought! Isn’t that good news?!

“Let me double the figures for a disease that grows exponentially”

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