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April fools joke?
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Rising Star
Lmao this is so dumb I don’t even know where to start. Do you understand that you can’t compare projections without changes in behavior to projections with changes in behavior?
Rising Star
The core of my point is about your faulty logic and complete lack of understanding of causality which your reply and this article does not address.
Given the way people have responded to this post I think we’re done here anyway.
Perfect timing as the model Trump has been referencing the most just updated to project 135,000 deaths from Covid
Let’s revisit in let’s say 30 days.
Pro
This post is added to my increasing number of data points on how BCG's interview process needs to improve bc they let people who can't do proper analysis slip through the cracks.
Lol.
Here you go Pro
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Right, Kemp and DeSantis made the right calls for their states. Most of the country isn’t New York, thank God for federalism
Halle fucking lujah for federalism indeed
That’s 27k excess deaths on top of the 67k deaths already attributed to Covid.
Chief
This is not how we taught you to note sources and citations. Pls fix OP.
Chief
This excess death for US (20.8K btw not 27K) is only through 4/11. Since then we have had on average 2K daily death for 3 weeks, think about that...
Chief
So some traffic and workplace deaths have been avoided. Are you saying you don’t believe 67k Americans have died from the virus?
Right, Florida. The state where health officials have prevented medical examiners from reporting covid deaths for the last 12 days. Yes, please, let's use them as the model
Chief
Can we, like, source our data as a best practice so this can stop happening?
Chief
The count was around 20k as of April 11 and the slope was on the way up. I don’t think you can simply double the number. https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-updates-michael-avenatti-granted-temporary-release-prison/story?id=70098434
Rising Star
which data
I think OP is misreading the data behind this article. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/
Chief
Is this what you’re referring to? WaPo reported 37,100 excess deaths in the US through April 11, which is 13,500 more than those attributed to COVID-19. Sounds like we’re undercounting.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/
Rising Star
Too early to tell
Without a source I have no idea what data you're referring to. Tried to Google this and the only thing close is data out of England.
If that s the same source I read, those 27k excess deaths are on top of the covid ones... and therefore likely covid related...
Rising Star
They weren’t!!
One more thing to consider, the number may go down once we re-classifying all the non covid deaths. (Unsure what the impact is, but a possibility). Nevertheless one is too many, let’s hope the model is wrong and it’ll come out much lower.
Rising Star
On April 11 CNN reported 18,860 covid deaths, the FT data showed 20k excess deaths, which seems on par.
If you can find an equivalent # for up to May and not just multiply by 2, based on... what? What YOU think is likely? For an infectious disease with exponential growth?
Go have a look at UK excess deaths across April, it’s like 3 times the prior year average
I forgot to include the link!!!
FT - https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Their new excess deaths charts show US has 27K excess deaths, compared to averages from last 3-5 years.
This is much lower than the 100K range.
FT coverage on Covid is all free
I clearly messed up the post by not including a link and more clearly stating the logic. Lesson learned - this is why sourcing and wording on slides matter 😂
Regardless, let me try again now.
FT data shows 20K excess deaths in the US since the beginning of the year. The data goes till 4/11 so we are missing roughly 3 weeks worth.
Even if that number doubles in the last 3 weeks, we are still “only” looking at 40K excess deaths.
My main point is that this is significantly less than 100K.
It’s possible that either many of the people who succumbed to Covid would have passed anyway, and/or the lockdown prevents many other deaths (eg road accidents), and/or Covid deaths are being overcounted in certain ways and under in other ways.
This isn’t to say we didn’t need to do a lockdown. Obviously we did. It’s just to say that the total net impact is better than we thought! Isn’t that good news?!
Rising Star
“Let me double the figures for a disease that grows exponentially”