{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "United CEO says businessair traffic demand not returning to normal until 2024. What do we think?", "post_id": "5f887d0200930300233e84cc", "reply_count": 41, "vote_count": 18, "bowl_id": "552d1d24dc1c586b09d2d051", "bowl_name": "Consulting" }

United CEO says businessair traffic demand not returning to normal until 2024. What do we think?

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I think they’ll have to offer some incentives for people to fly at the same levels people were flying Jan 2020. I don’t know where the 2024 figure comes from, but it’s likely not returning to normal in 2021

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Wear space suit inside the flight? New normal?

I think it’s a combination of distributing a vaccine globally, people’s fear of flying in a metal tube, and businesses rethinking whether employees need to travel for work. I don’t know how they got 2024 but it won’t be any time soon thats for sure

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Lufthansa said the same

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Doesn't seem unrealistic now that companies have had success when people wfh

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So the question is are they projecting it taking that long due to just Covid, or are they expecting that the financial impact will produce a recession/ depression that lasts 4 years

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Both. There’s multiple layers to this - 1) physical barriers (social distance enforcement, stay at home orders, etc) 2) fear of traveling due to COVID-19 spread - essentially customer confidence in safety 3) financial repercussions of the pandemic Considering all 3 - I would think the customer comfort and financial climate will be the larger drivers of reduced travel in 2022 and onward.

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I’m surprised they think it’ll ever return to normal considering big consulting firms are never going to travel as much as we used to

likesmart

We like to think we drive the industry, but the reality is there’s lots of other folks that fly who aren’t consultants. Salespeople. Engineers in multinational companies. Attorneys on big litigation. Consulting travel will likely never return to previous levels, but as soon as attorneys can start taking depositions in person again they are going to. As soon as salespeople can visit customers again they are going to. We are not the whole world of business travel.

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Nice. About the time we are hit with COVID-23.

likefunny

Fine. Just make sure you contract the business accordingly and don’t expect bailouts the next four years so you can do bullshit like stock buybacks.

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I think this is pretty optimistic. 2020 is about over. 2021 is obviously going to horrible. Then a stair step increase after that. I'd be surprised if we get there sometime in 2024. If it takes a year from now for Covid to get controlled through vaccine distributed globally. Then a year for the recession to end and time for people to get out of bankruptcy. This recession is mostly hurting lower income people, so airlines won't be affected as much as local travel. Consulting and business travel will resume slowly. Next year will be roughly 25% of 2019 consulting travel I'd guess. Maybe 2023 gets us to 75%. Maybe 2024 gets us to 90% of consulting travel. That may be optimistic as more companies move to a regional model.

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We think invest all your money in airlines for long term returns

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@accenture 2 when has this happened. Not anytime in recent history....

What do these guys know that everyone else doesn’t?

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Nothing. It's just inscrutable at this point so they say something that is far enough out they don't have to deliver soon, but close enough that think you may actually see a return.

Not surprised. Going to be a long road ahead to get back to where our economies were before this... biz travel definitely will take time to come back.

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I pulled the above from a WSJ article earlier today. this was also included...

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They're just positioning for more government handouts. I've been on the road each of the past three weeks, and the traffic in some airports looks like it did pre-COVID.

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I will NEVER fly United again after the way they handled my flight last month. They are reckless with the safety of their crew and passengers. With an attitude on top.

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First time I’m hearing 2024...

This in line with IATA predictions.

I think they are also considering that now so many organizations have improved telework they can curtail travel costs for a while.

Wow life sucks. We all have to double duty. Oops.

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Makes sense. Companies will find they spent too much on travel and much can be done remotely via conference tools.

Underpromise overdeliver 101

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