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How often do you change jobs?
I can't stop thinking about work.
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So 10% is the historical rate, but if you target disruptive companies you could potentially be looking at returns around 30%. That being said a 7% return is probably a safe conservative estimate.
How would amateurs on this site know? You'll get answers like "10% because that what the historical rate is", or "30% if you buy DISRUPTIVE companies", or "7% because that's what the online calculator tells me is 'conservative'".
Chief
You understand that this number is unknowable right? Anyone who gave an answer would just be guessing.
Chief
I’m approx 40 — 4 years in the military, a couple years doing random jobs, ~8 years in academia and ~8 years consulting.
Math would tell you it’ll be tough to get much above 0%. But J Pow’s printers would tell you anything could happen.
If I could tell you this, I would have invented time travel
Short answer...nobody knows. Long answer...
Looking at the past 50 years (1970 to today), if you were to put $100 in the market on any given day and then take it out 5 years later...
In about 1% of cases you’d see a CAGR between -10% to -5%.
In about 20% of cases you’d see a CAGR of -5% to 0%.
14% would be 0% to 5%
24% would be 5% to 10%
41% would be 10% to 25%
1% would be 25% to 30%
Your average and median returns would be 7.7% and 8.9% respectively.
Of course, past returns are not necessarily indicative of future returns, but this provides a reasonable range of expectations. Do you think the market is positioned to do better or worse than usual?
FWIW, if you were to hold 15 years or longer, you’d have never seen a loss. The best approach is to put money into the market as you make it, unless you need to set aside money for a big purchase or expense such as buying a home or starting a business in the next 5 years.
20%. Stonks only go up baby!