What are good resources to leverage to learn how to construct a robust, comprehensive model of probability of success of a specific asset in a pivotal trial?

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Idk if it needs to be robust. It’s essentially a decision tree approach with a Monte Carlo simulation

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Dices !

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Monte Carlo simulations are not really far off from this conceptually - define a probability distribution corresponding to each non-fixed variable in your model, and sample from these distributions to obtain "outcomes", feed these outcomes as well as any fixed variables into your model to get a trial result for a given simulation. Repeat many time to obtain a probabilistic distribution of potential results for your trial, obtain probability of success via # of successful simulations/total # of simulations.

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