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What do you think it would take for stocks to reflect the economic reality? Pic related.

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I think we moon unless the dollar collapses. With this crisis plus 2008, the government has made clear we are forever bailing out the market. The risk of catastrophic risk no longer applies, they will pump and pump and prop it up until the day there's a currency crisis. In which case everyone is screwed beyond belief so there's no use even worrying about it.

Still might be volatility ahead, but as someone who bet on retesting the low, I don't think we will again. If we fall another 10% just start buying the dip because it's now completely obvious the game will be rigged until the day the house of cards crashes.

Tldr, brrrrrrrrrr


Well put. Funny we don’t even hear the words “moral hazard” anymore.


Fed stops printing money and backstopping treasuries, corporate debt, and the dollar


Mostly the latter, not really the former. I work in the exchange / trading industry so all these developments are core to how we position. We may be the only industry benefitting from this volatility, but the fed (and other central banks) are seriously increasing the risk of currency failures. Dangerous game, but so is letting people do without. Tough spot.


As a metric for how US workers are doing? Never.

When US stocks rise by $1 something like .66c goes to US Citizens, .33 to foreigners. 90% of both piles are going to rich or upper middle class groups, with the last sliver for the rest.

It’s hard to imagine a way for US stocks to become a good barometer for working and middle class household outcomes. Kicking down a few shares to each worker won’t change the overall.


1) PPP money must run out and those companies dependent on it must fail.
2) Companies that depend on low cost labor must also fail because people would rather collect "fat "unemployment checks.

As someone who worked on PPP loans - most of them did in fact go to small businesses


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